变化环境下珠江广州河段最高洪潮水位演变特征分析  

Analysis of Evolutionary Characteristics of Highest Water Levels in Pearl River Guangzhou Reach under Changing Environments

作　　者：王进[1] 梁颖珊[1] 林凯荣 WANG Jin;LIANG Yingshan;LIN Kairong(Guangzhou Hydrological Branch of Guangdong Provincial Hydrological Bureau,Guangzhou 510150,China;School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Civil Engineering,Guangzhou 510275,China;Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局广州水文分局,广东广州510150 [2]中山大学土木工程学院,广东广州510275 [3]广东省海洋土木工程重点实验室,广东广州510275 [4]广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《人民珠江》2024年第7期38-47,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：国家优秀青年科学基金(51822908);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2023B1515040028)。

摘　　要：珠江广州河段最高洪潮水位演变特征对于广州市防洪工程的规划设计意义重大。用滑动平均法、M-K法等方法,分析了珠江广州河段4个水文站历年(53~115a)最高洪潮水位序列的均值、方差、变差系数等变化特征;对水位极大值进行了考证;用P-Ⅲ型频率曲线对整个序列和每20a序列进行拟合和分析,并对未来时段的频率分布特征进行了推断。结果显示:珠江广州河段最高洪潮水位总体呈波动上升趋势,序列均值、方差及变差系数均有增大趋势,近年来水位屡创新高,水文序列的一致性已遭到极大的破坏,传统的使用长系列资料的水文频率分析方法在变化环境下可能会产生较大的偏差。建议不要过分强调资料序列的长度,而应更加重视近期资料的应用,并可适当外延。The evolution characteristics of the highest water levels in the Pearl River are of great significance for the planning and design of flood control works in Guangzhou.By using the moving average method and the Mann-Kendall(M-K)method,the variation characteristics of statistical parameters such as mean value,variance,and coefficient of variation of the highest water level series at four hydrological stations in the Pearl River Guangzhou reach over the years(53~115 a)are analyzed.The highest water level is investigated.The P-Ⅲtype frequency distribution curve is utilized to fit and compare the entire sequence and every 20-year sequence,and the frequency distribution characteristics of future time periods are inferred.The results show that the highest water levels in the Pearl River Guangzhou reach are generally fluctuating and rising,and the mean and variance(and coefficient of variation)of the series are increasing.In recent years,the water levels have repeatedly reached new highs,and the consistency of the hydrological series has been greatly damaged.Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods using long-series data may produce significant deviations in changing environments.It is suggested that the length of the data series should not be overemphasized,and more attention should be paid to the application of recent data,and the appropriate extension of the trend.

关 键 词：变化环境 趋势分析 突变分析 水文频率 珠江 广州 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]