大国博弈变迁中的东南亚发展模式  

The Development Model of Southeast Asia Amidst Great Power Rivalry

作　　者：钟飞腾 Zhong Feiteng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院、地区安全研究中心

出　　处：《文化纵横》2024年第4期43-52,M0003,共11页

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“百年变局与中国周边安全新态势研究”(项目批准号:23&ZD331)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在中美博弈加剧的背景下,东南亚的重要性更加凸显。与21世纪初相比,如今的东南亚(东盟)在世界舞台上已是耀眼的存在。按照购买力平价(PPP)计算,东盟作为一个整体是世界第五大经济体,仅次于中国、美国、欧盟、印度,占世界经济的比重从2001年的5.0%增长至2023年的6.4%。Two major intergenerational trade models have been identified in academia when explaining the development of Southeast Asia:the"flying geese"model and the value-added trade model.Currently Southeast Asian trade is entering the third generation of trade models.Compared to the previous two stages,the internal development space in Southeast Asia has narrowed,although some countries are entering a good period of development.After the end of the pandemic,China continued to adhere to an open policy,stabilizing China ASEAN economic relations,especially with imports from ASEAN still increasing.To assess the future development of Southeast Asia,it is still necessary to combine political and economic considerations.

关 键 词：东南亚 雁行模式 增加值贸易 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]