基于VSD模型的乐清湾生态系统脆弱性评价  

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment of Yueqing Bay based on VSD model

作　　者：陈思杨[1] 刘瑞娟[1] 张晓辉[1] 熊薇 CHEN Siyang;LIU Ruijuan;ZHANG Xiaohui;XIONG Wei(Marine monitoring and forecasting center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310007,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省海洋监测预报中心,浙江杭州310007

出　　处：《应用海洋学学报》2024年第3期579-587,共9页Journal of Applied Oceanography

基　　金：浙江省重点研发计划(2017C03037);浙江省“尖兵”“领雁”研发攻关计划(2023C03130);浙江省自然资源厅科技项目(2021⁃74,2023⁃52)。

摘　　要：为探明海湾生态系统脆弱性及主要影响因素,以乐清湾生态系统为研究对象,基于“暴露程度、敏感性和适应能力”的VSD(vulnerability scoping diagram)模型,应用层次分析和模糊综合评价法定量评价了2010—2012、2015—2017、2020—2022年乐清湾生态系统脆弱性状况。结果表明,乐清湾生态系统在3个阶段均处于“中度脆弱”水平,综合得分逐渐降低,呈逐步改善趋势。3个阶段中,暴露程度总体变化不大,敏感性逐步改善,适应能力逐步提升,主要人为胁迫因子为工业产值占GDP比例、滩涂围垦面积占海湾面积比例和海水养殖密度,主要敏感因子为生物量、生物多样性综合指数和水生境综合指数。为提升乐清湾生态系统健康水平,应优化产业布局、调整海水养殖结构、加强海岸带综合整治修复、推进生物多样性保护专项立法、加大生态监管力度和提高公民参与程度。To explore the vulnerability and main impacting factors of bay ecosystem,based on the VSD model of“exposure degree,sensitivity and adaptability”,this paper quantitatively evaluated the ecosystem vulnerability of Yueqing Bay in 2010-2012,2015-2017 and 2020-2022 using analytic hierarchy pricess(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods.Results showed that Yueqing Bay was classified at the level of“moderate vulnerability”in three periods,and the comprehensive score of vulnerability decreased gradually and showed a trend of gradual improvement.The overall exposure degree changed little,the sensitivity and adaptability gradually improved in three stages.The main factors of anthropogenic stress were the ratio of industrial output value to GDP,the ratio of beach reclamation area and the density of mariculture.The main sensitive factors were biomass,biodiversity comprehensive index and water environment comprehensive index.In order to improve the health of the ecosystem in Yueqing Bay,it is necessary to optimize the industrial layout and mariculture structure,strengthen the comprehensive regulation and restoration of the coastal zone and promote the special legislation on biodiversity protection and improve the intensity of ecological supervision for more citizen participations.

关 键 词：海洋环境科学 海湾生态系统 生态系统脆弱性 模糊综合评价 VSD模型 乐清湾 

分 类 号：P76[天文地球—海洋科学]