藏东南地区近二十年降水分区及时空演化特征  

Characteristics of precipitation and its spatiotemporal evolution in southeast Tibet in the last two decades

作　　者：鲁响 赵伟华[1] LU Xiang;ZHAO Weihua(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学),成都610059

出　　处：《成都理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期698-707,共10页Journal of Chengdu University of Technology: Science & Technology Edition

基　　金：水电水利规划设计总院委外科技课题(DJ-ZDXM-2019-3);四川省自然科学基金面上项目(2022NSFSC0408)。

摘　　要：在全球变暖的背景下,藏东南地区的降水变化不仅会影响区域水资源分布,同时还对区域的水循环、冻土演变等产生重要影响,因此深入研究该地区的降水时空格局及演化规律,对区域生态环境保护具有重要意义。对藏东南地区76个气象站点2000—2021年的降水数据,采用反距离权重插值(IDW)、旋转经验正交函数(REOF)、Sen’s斜率估计、Manne-Kendall趋势检验和Morlet小波分析等方法分析了该地区降水的时空分布及演化特征。结果表明:藏东南地区降水空间和时间上总体表现为“东高西低”“雨热同期”。基于旋转经验正交函数将研究区划分为10个子区域。不同子区域间降水分区特征明显,其中东部的Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅳ区、Ⅵ区和Ⅹ区降水呈现增加趋势,其余子区域降水均呈现不同程度降低趋势;各分区的年平均降水量在近20年内均有突变产生,且不同分区间的平均降水量波动周期有所差异。以上成果可为藏东南地区生态环境保护措施的制定提供支持。In the background of global warming,changes in precipitation in southeast Tibet will not only influence the distribution of regional water resources,but will also have an important impact on the regional water cycle and the evolution of permafrost.In this paper,we analyze the spatial and temporal distributions as well as the characteristics of evolution of precipitation recorded at 76 meteorological stations in southeast Tibet from 2000 to 2021 by using inverse distance weighted interpolation,the rotational empirical orthogonal function(REOF),Sen’s method of slope estimation,Manne-Kendall trend test,and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results show that precipitation in southeast Tibet was generally high in the east and low in the west,while raining and hot during the same peroid occurred in the same season.We used the REOF,to divide the study area into 10 sub-regions.The precipitation in different sub-regions exhibited prominent regional characteristics.It showed a trend of in creases in the eastern regionsⅠ,Ⅱ,Ⅳ,ⅥandⅩtrendvarying degrees.The annual average precipitation and period sub-region.The results can provide support for the formulation of ecological and environmental protection in southeast Tibet.

关 键 词：藏东南地区 降水分区 旋转经验正交函数 突变检验 降水周期 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]