新形势下的俄美关系走向  

The Future Trajectory of Russia-US Relations under New Circumstances

作　　者：柳丰华[1] LIU Fenghua

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所俄罗斯外交研究室

出　　处：《国际问题研究》2024年第3期38-59,131,132,共24页International Studies

摘　　要：俄罗斯与美国因乌克兰危机全面升级已陷入全面对抗。普京在新的总统任期将继续以军事实力追求其在乌克兰的主要目标,抗衡美国制裁与遏制,依靠核威慑保卫国家安全和战略利益,抵制美国对俄内政干涉,抑制美在欧亚地区的扩张。新一届美国政府将延续遏俄弱俄政策,强化对俄制裁与遏制,欲使俄罗斯遭受“战略失败”。双方在核军控领域达成合作的可能性不大。俄美全面对抗将贯穿普京六年任期,甚至延续到2030年代上半期。未来俄美关系存在因美国内政和国际形势等变化而改善的可能性,但改善的概率小,幅度有限。未来俄美战略军备可能无约可控,俄罗斯同美国和北约在乌克兰可能发生有限规模的直接常规武装冲突,这是两国和国际社会需要预防的两个重大安全风险。With the all-round escalation of the Ukraine crisis,the relationship between Russia and the United States has become one of all-out confrontation.In his new presidential term,Vladimir Putin will continue to pursue his major objectives in Ukraine with military strength,counter US sanctions and containment,safeguard national security and strategic interests through nuclear deterrence,resist US interference in Russian internal affairs,and rein in the US expansion in the Eurasian region.The new US administration will inherit the policy of suppressing and weakening Russia and step up its containment and sanction efforts to inflict a“strategic defeat”on Russia.Bilateral cooperation on nuclear arms control is unlikely,if not impossible.Comprehensive confrontation is expected to be the theme of Russia-US relations throughout Putin’s six-year term and even last into the early 2030s.The relationship may experience some sort of improvement due to changes in US domestic politics and the international situation.Still,the odds are low,and the extent will be limited even in the case of one.There may be no treaty to confine the development of Russian and US strategic arsenals in the future,and Russia may be embroiled in a direct conventional armed conflict of limited scale with the US and NATO in Ukraine.These are the two major security risks both countries and the international community should prevent.

关 键 词：俄美关系 俄美全面对抗 美国对俄政策 

分 类 号：D851.22[政治法律—政治学]