1850—1949年湖北省霍乱流行的时空规律及影响机制  

Spatio-temporal patterns and influencing mechanisms of cholera epidemics in Hubei province from 1850 to 1949

作　　者：张涛[1,2] 陈志禹 曾雨欣 韩佳怡 龚胜生[1,2] ZHANG Tao;CHEN Zhiyu;ZENG Yuxin;HAN Jiayi;GONG Shengsheng(Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;Research Institute of Sustainable Development,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,武汉430079 [2]华中师范大学可持续发展研究中心,武汉430079

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第7期1661-1681,共21页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371265,41801141);国家社会科学基金项目(21VJXT015);中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科类高水平后期自主培育专项(CCNU23HQ014)。

摘　　要：霍乱是人类三大烈性传染病之一。基于历史医学地理学视角,收集整理近代霍乱史料和环境数据,使用M-K检验、小波分析、GIS空间分析以及结构方程模型等方法,对近代湖北省霍乱流行的时空规律及影响机制进行研究,结果表明:(1)1850—1949年间湖北省霍乱流行可分为晚清咸同时期(1850—1874年)、清末光宣时期(1875—1911年)、中华民国早期(1912—1927年)、中华民国中晚期(1928—1949年)4个阶段,霍乱流行的频度逐渐提升。(2)1850—1949年湖北省共有49个霍乱流行年份,1932年的霍乱疫情最严重,1942年后霍乱流行频度显著上升;霍乱流行主要发生在夏秋季节,存在35 a、19 a、10 a、5 a时间尺度的波动周期,其中10 a时间尺度为第一主周期,35 a时间尺度为第二主周期。(3)1850—1949年湖北省累计有58个县流行过霍乱,霍乱频度的县域集聚特征明显,高值区在武汉三镇及周边,低值区在鄂西地区;霍乱疫区沿江、沿湖从中部江汉平原向周边山区扩张,江汉平原为霍乱疫情最为严重的区域;霍乱疫情的分布重心在江汉平原腹心摆动,略呈由东南向西北迁移的趋势。(4)自然因素、灾害因素与人文因素共同影响近代湖北霍乱疫情的时空特征,海拔、人口、降水、河网和路网等的区域差异奠定了湖北霍乱疫情“东重西轻”的空间格局,战争、涝灾、旱灾、温度等的时间变迁塑造了湖北省霍乱疫情“后重前轻”的时间变化。本文为长时间序列霍乱疫情的研究,其研究结论对湖泊水系密集区域霍乱疫情的防控具有指导意义。Cholera is one of the three virulent infectious diseases in humans.Based on the perspective of historical medical geography,we collected and sorted out modern cholera historical materials and environmental data,and used methods such as M-K test,wavelet analysis,GIS spatial analysis,and structural equation model to study the spatio-temporal patterns and influencing mechanisms of the cholera epidemic in modern Hubei province.The results show that:(1)From 1850 to 1949,cholera epidemics in Hubei can be divided into four periods:the Xiantong period of the late Qing Dynasty(1850-1874),the Guangxuan period of the late Qing Dynasty(1875-1911),the early Republic of China(1912-1927),and the middle and late Republic of China(1928-1949),and the frequency of cholera epidemics gradually increased.(2)From 1850 to 1949,there were 49 cholera epidemic years in the province.The cholera epidemic in 1932 was the most serious,and the frequency of cholera epidemics increased significantly after 1942.Cholera epidemics mainly occurred in summer and autumn,with fluctuation cycles on the time scales of 35 a,19 a,10 a,and 5 a.The 10 a time scale was the first main cycle,followed by the 35 a time scale.(3)From 1850 to 1949,58 counties had cholera epidemics.The county clustering characteristics of cholera frequency were obvious.The high-value areas were distriuted in the three towns of Wuhan and their surroundings,and the low-value areas were in western Hubei.The cholera epidemic areas expanded along the rivers and lakes from the central Jianghan Plain to the surrounding mountainous areas.The Jianghan Plain was the area with the most serious cholera epidemics.The distribution center of the cholera epidemics swung in the center of the Jianghan Plain,showing a slight trend of migrating from southeast to northwest.(4)Natural factors,disaster factors and humanistic factors jointly affected the spatio-temporal characteristics of the cholera epidemics in modern Hubei.Regional differences in altitude,population,precipitation,river network and road n

关 键 词：霍乱疫情 时空规律 影响机制 近代湖北(1850—1949年) 

分 类 号：R516.5[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]