2000—2020年中国青饲料播种面积及其供需驱动因素的时空格局  

Spatio-temporal patterns of succulence sown area and its driving factors considering forage demand and supply in China during 2000-2020

作　　者：杨彤 赵雯莉 董金玮[3] 李愈哲[3] 李之超 王洁[4] 齐雯丽 毕健 张戈丽 YANG Tong;ZHAO Wenli;DONG Jinwei;LI Yuzhe;LI Zhichao;WANG Jie;QI Wenli;BI Jian;ZHANG Geli(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100093,China;College of Biological Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100093,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Grassland Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100093,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100093 [2]中国农业大学生物学院,北京100093 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [4]中国农业大学草业科学与技术学院,北京100093 [5]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第7期1804-1823,共20页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0608);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA26010202)。

摘　　要：高产、优质的青饲料对于国家畜牧业发展和食物供给至关重要。然而,当前对于青饲料播种面积时空变化格局及其阶段性特征、区域差异以及影响因素等尚未清楚。本文基于省级面板数据分析了2000—2020年青饲料种植的时空格局变化,结合MODIS-NPP产品和统计数据,揭示了饲料供给与需求对青饲料播种面积的影响。结果表明:①2020年中国青饲料播种面积为2199×10^(3)hm^(2),仅占农作物播种面积的1.3%,其中牧业地区占全国的59%。②2000年以来青饲料播种面积经历了快速增长(2000—2003年,464.2×10^(3)hm^(2)/a)、快速下降(2004—2009年,-399×10^(3)hm^(2)/a)和缓慢增长(2010—2020年,64.3×10^(3)hm^(2)/a)3个时期。牧业地区主导了全国青饲料播种面积的变化。③饲料供需因素最多可以解释92%的青饲料播种面积变化。其中,饲料需求每增加1万t,青饲料播种面积最高增加900 hm^(2)。秸秆草饲料产量与青饲料互为补充,以负效应为主(偏回归系数介于-1.2~-0.5之间)。天然草饲料产量则对青饲料播种面积变化影响较小。此外,生态工程和农业政策等因素通过调控奶业、草牧业和种植业对青饲料播种面积的变化有重要影响。本文结果可为制定粮食安全、生态环境保护和作物结构调整等相关政策措施提供科学支持。High-yield and superior-quality succulence is crucial to the development of national animal husbandry and food supply.However,the current understanding of the spatial and temporal variation pattern of succulence sown area needs to be improved,especially the stage characteristics,regional differences and driving factors are not yet clear.Based on the provincial panel data,we analyse the spatial and temporal dynamic patterns of succulence sown area from 2000 to 2020,and reveal its driving factors of forage supply and demand based on natural forage production,crop straw production,and forage demand estimated by MODISderived NPP datasets,crop production,and total livestock in each provincial-level region.The main results are that:(1)The sown area of succulence in China was 2199 thousand hectares,accounting for only 1.3%of the crop sown area in 2020.The succulence plantation in China is mainly distributed in pastoral areas,accounting for 59%of the country.(2)Since 2000,the interannual variation of succulence sown area in China has undergone three stages:a rapid growth stage(2000-2003,464.2 thousand hm^(2)/a),a rapid decline stage(2004-2009,-399 thousand hm^(2)/a)and a slow growth stage(2010-2020,64.3 thousand hm^(2)/a).The pastoral provinces dominated the dynamics of the whole country.(3)Forage supply and demand factors can explain at most 92%of the dynamic of succulence sown area.Forage demand increases by 10000 tons,the sown area of succulence increases by 900 hectares at most.Straw forage and succulence complement each other,and straw forage production mainly has negative effects(the partial regression coefficients ranges from-1.2 to-0.5)on the sown area of succulence.The natural forage production has little effect on the change of succulence sown area.In addition,ecological engineering and agricultural policy play important roles in regulating the development of dairy,forage,and planting husbandry.Our study on spatial and temporal patterns of succulence sown area and its driving factors considering forage demand a

关 键 词：青饲料 时空格局 播种面积 饲料供需 中国 

分 类 号：F324.6[经济管理—产业经济] F326.3