风险倾向、投资经验与中国对外能源投资  

Risk Tendency,Investment Experience and China's Outward Energy Investments

作　　者：王雪婷 王永中[1,2] Wang Xueting;Wang Yongzhong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《中国社会科学院大学学报》2024年第5期131-155,160,共26页Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

基　　金：中国社会科学院研究所实验室综合资助项目“世界经济预测与政策模拟实验室”(2024SYZH003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文基于随机效用模型构建混合面板Logit计量模型,利用2006—2019年中国企业对外能源绿地投资和并购投资的微观数据,分析中国企业对外能源投资决策的风险倾向,以及企业前期投资经验对后续投资风险倾向的影响。研究发现,相较东道国的外生风险,中国企业对外能源投资决策对东道国的内生风险的容忍度更高或更为偏好。由于与并购投资、化石能源投资相比,绿地投资、电力投资对东道国的内生风险暴露程度较高,故而中国企业对能源绿地投资的风险偏好度高于能源并购投资、对电力投资的风险偏好度高于化石能源投资。对投资经验的进一步研究显示,中国能源企业的前期投资经验有助于提高其在后续投资中对东道国的内生风险的容忍度,投资经验越丰富的企业对东道国的内生风险的容忍度或偏好度越高,并且这一效应对开展能源并购投资和化石能源投资的企业更为明显。This paper establishes a mixed panel Logit econometric model based on the stochastic utility model.Using firm-level data of Chinese enterprises,outward energy greenfield investment and M&A investment from 2006 to 2019,it analyzes the risk tendency of Chinese enterprises,outward energy investment decisions and studies the impact of enterprises,early investment experience on subsequent investments.The study finds that Chinese enterprises,outbound energy investment decisions show a stronger tolerance or preference for endogenous risks than exogenous risks in host countries.Compared with M&A investment and fossil energy investment,greenfiled investment and power investment have a higher degree of endogenous risk exposure to the host country.Consequently,Chinese enterprises,risk preference for energy greenfield investment is higher than that of M&A investment,and their risk preference for electric power investment is higher than that of fossil energy investment.Further research on investment experience shows that the early investment experience of Chinese energy enterprises can help improve their tolerance to host country risks in subsequent investments.More experienced enterprises show a higher tolerance or preference for host country risks,and this effect is more obvious for companies that carry out energy M&A investments and fossil fuel investments.

关 键 词：对外能源投资 风险倾向 投资经验 随机效用模型 混合面板Logit模型 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]