2024年我国石化市场展望  

Prospect of China's Petrochemical Market in 2024

作　　者：肖冰 隋谨伊 王丽敏 李超 杨惠馨 赵睿 Xiao Bing;Sui Jinyi;Wang Limin;Li Chao;Yang Huixin;Zhao Rui(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2024年第7期15-20,共6页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：2023年我国进入后疫情时代元年,工业生产恢复不及预期,效益普遍下滑,石化行业在巨量扩能累加下供应压力高涨,需求受出口和房地产拖累仍相对低迷,但在2022年低基数影响下增速有所加快。2024年为全球“超级大选年”,地缘风险加剧,全球经济有望筑底企稳,我国经济将恢复向好。文章综合分析了2024年国内外宏观形势、石化相关行业发展趋势及石化行业运行情况,认为2024年我国石化市场供应出现缓和窗口期,需求继续修复。As China entered the post-pandemic era in 2023,the recovery of industrial production was less than expected,and the benefits generally declined.The supply pressure of the petrochemical industry rose under the accumulation of huge capacity expansion,and the demand was still relatively sluggish due to exports and real estate,however,the growth rate accelerated under the influence of the low base in 2022.The intensifying geopolitical risk in the 2024 global“super election year”leads to the expectation of constructing a stable global economy including the recovery of China’s economy.This paper comprehensively analyzes the macro situation at home and abroad in 2024,the development trend of petrochemical-related industries,and the operation of the petrochemical industry.It also proposes that the supply of China's petrochemical market will have a window period in 2024,and the demand will continue to be repaired.

关 键 词：2024年 石化市场 宏观形势 供应 需求 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济]