海外炼油化工工程风险管控实证分析研究  

Research and Analysis on Risk Management of Overseas Refining and Chemical Engineering

作　　者：李敏[1] Li Min(SINOPEC Corp.Information and Digital Management Department,Beijing 100728,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油化工股份有限公司信息和数字化管理部,北京100728

出　　处：《当代石油石化》2024年第7期49-52,共4页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘　　要：海外炼油化工工程项目建设周期长,资本投入大,运行设备多,涉及技术及工艺复杂,人员管理难度大,项目风险管理至关重要。文章明确了项目风险管理的基本原则,建立工程项目风险管理控制方法,求解风险损失最小化条件下的各种风险发生概率。当风险的发生概率不大于求解得到的相应目标值时,项目风险可控,可以实施。文章提出的风险管理控制方法克服了传统定性化风险管理的不足,将多种风险因素对海外炼化项目的影响量化,从而有效辅助相关海外炼油化工工程项目的实施决策。The long construction period,large capital investment demand,complex equipment and technological process involved,and difficulties in personnel management in oversea refining and chemical engineering projects highlights the great significance of project risk managements.This paper proposes the basic principles of risk management,constructs the risk management methods in engineering projects,and solves the probability of various risks based on the purpose of minimizing project risk loss.Studies indicates that,as the occurrence probability of various risks is no greater than the corresponding target value,the project risk is considered controllable and thus can be implemented.The risk management method proposed in this paper overcomes the shortcomings of traditional qualitative risk management,quantifies the impact of various risk factors on overseas refining and chemical projects which effectively assist the implementation and decision-making of relevant overseas refining and chemical projects.

关 键 词：风险管理 风险损失最小化 炼油化工工程 决策 

分 类 号：TE687[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程] TQ086[化学工程]