2024年一季度中国经济运行的若干特点与全年经济展望  

Characteristics of China s Economic Operation in the First Quarter of 2024 and Annual Economic Outlook

作　　者：许宪春 唐雅 王洋[3] 常子豪 XU Xianchun;TANG Ya;WANG Yang;CHANG Zihao(National Statistical Society of China,Beijing 100080,China;School of Government,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210033,China;Digital Economy Laboratory,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;Department of Public Finance Audit,National Audit Office of the People s Republic of China,Beijing 100073,China)

机构地区：[1]中国统计学会,北京100080 [2]南京大学政府管理学院,江苏南京210033 [3]对外经济贸易大学数字经济实验室,北京100029 [4]中华人民共和国审计署财政审计司,北京100073

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2024年第7期5-15,共11页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“大数据背景下新经济新动能统计监测与评价研究”(18ZDA124)。

摘　　要：文章基于统计指标和统计数据,从生产、需求、收入和价格四个角度入手对2024年一季度经济运行情况进行分析,并提炼经济运行特征特点。从生产角度看,一季度经济增长5.3%,实现超预期增长,第二产业表现突出,第三产业增加值增速有所回落;从需求角度看,消费需求保持对经济增长的主要拉动作用,投资需求的拉动作用有所减弱,净出口需求有所恢复;从收入角度看,居民收入保持平稳增长,企业利润增速回升;从价格角度看,消费领域价格总体平稳,生产领域价格低位运行。基于对经济运行情况的分析,文章还对一季度经济增长超预期的原因,经济运行中面临的矛盾与挑战进行了探讨。最后,对全年经济运行进行了展望并提出政策发力方向。Based on statistical indicators and data,this paper analyzes the economic operation in the first quarter of 2024 from four perspectives:production,demand,income and price,and summarizes a number of characteristics.From the perspective of production,the economy grew by 5.3%in the first quarter realizing over-expected growth,with outstanding performance of the secondary industry and the declining growth rate of value added in the tertiary industry.From the perspective of demand,consumer demand maintained its main pulling role for economic growth,the pulling role of investment demand weakened,and the demand for net exports recovered.From the perspective of income,the income of the residents maintained steady growth and the growth rate of enterprise profits rebounded.From the perspective of prices,prices in the consumer sector were generally stable,and prices in the production sector were running low.Based on the analysis of the economic operation,this paper also discusses the reasons why the economic growth in the first quarter exceeded the expectation,and the contradictions and challenges faced in the economic operation.Finally,the paper also makes an outlook for the annual economic operation and puts forward the direction of policy efforts.

关 键 词：经济形势 超预期增长 矛盾与挑战 经济发展展望 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]