Status and trends in the stability of the three largest ice shelves in Antarctica  

作　　者：Rongxing LI Guojun LI Lu AN Menglian XIA Da LV Yuan CHENG Aiguo ZHAO Tian CHANG Xiangbin CUI Shengkai ZHANG Shijie LIU Yixiang TIAN Weian WANG 

机构地区：[1]Center for Spatial Information Science and Sustainable Development Applications,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China [2]College of Surveying and Geo-informatics,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China [3]Postdoctoral Research Station of Shanghai Surveying and Mapping Institute,Shanghai 200063,China [4]Key Laboratory of Spatial-temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities,Shanghai 200063,China [5]Institute for Conservation of Cultural Heritage,School of Cultural Heritage and Information Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China [6]Polar Research Institute of China,Shanghai 200136,China [7]Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2024年第8期2615-2632,共18页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41730102);the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant Nos.2021YFB3900105&2017YFA0603100);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。

摘　　要：The Ross,Filchner-Ronne,and Amery ice shelves are the three largest ice shelves in Antarctica,playing a crucial role in supporting the Antarctic ice sheet.However,current studies on the stability of the three largest ice shelves primarily focus on singular or limited factors,lacking a comprehensive assessment of multiple parameters.To systematically and in-depth study the stability and trend of the three largest ice shelves,we comprehensively collected and analyzed key parameters,including elevation changes,basal melting,surface meltwater,major rifts propagation rate,suture zones,ice front area change rate,grounding lines,ice velocity,and mass balance.Additionally,we selected the collapsed Larsen B Ice Shelf(LBIS),the rapidly changing and structurally weakened Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS),and the accelerating Totten Ice Shelf(TIS)as reference ice shelves.By comparing and analyzing the key parameters between these reference ice shelves and the three largest ice shelves,we find the status and trends in the stability of the latter.Our findings reveal that most key parameters of the three largest ice shelves present relatively minor variations compared to those of the reference ice shelves.Specifically,50%of the parameters are smaller than those of the accelerating TIS,88%are smaller than those of the rapidly changing PIIS,and all parameters are smaller than those of the collapsed LBIS.Furthermore,after analyzing parameters that are not smaller than those of the TIS,it is observed that they remain in a stable state.Hence,the three largest ice shelves are currently undergoing natural changes that do not threaten their stability in the short term.Nevertheless,the evolution of the ice shelves under global climate change remains uncertain,making long-term observation and monitoring essential to assess their impact on sea level rise.

关 键 词：Three largest ice shelves in Antarctica Key parameters Remote sensing monitoring Ice shelf stability Sea level change 

分 类 号：P941.61[天文地球—自然地理学] P343.6