两倍的青藏高原蒸散发增长速率  

A doubled increasing trend of evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：陈学龙 袁令 马耀明 陈德亮 Bob Su 曹殿斌 Xuelong Chen;Ling Yuan;Yaoming Ma;Deliang Chen;Zhongbo Su;Dianbin Cao(Land-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Climatic Effects Group,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes,Dingri 858200,China;Kathmandu Center of Research and Education,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan;Regional Climate Group,Department of Earth Science,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden;Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation,University of Twente,Enschede 7500AE,the Netherlands;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]Land-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Climatic Effects Group,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China [4]National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes,Dingri 858200,China [5]Kathmandu Center of Research and Education,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [6]China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Islamabad 45320,Pakistan [7]Regional Climate Group,Department of Earth Science,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden [8]Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation,University of Twente,Enschede 7500AE,the Netherlands [9]School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,China

出　　处：《Science Bulletin》2024年第12期1980-1990,共11页科学通报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(2019QZKK0103,2019QZKK0105);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975009,42230610);supported by the Swedish Research Council VR(2021-02163,2022-06011)。

摘　　要：Estimation of evapotranspiration(ET_(a))change on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)is essential to address the water requirement of billions of people surrounding the TP.Existing studies have shown that ET_(a)estimations on the TP have a very large uncertainty.In this article,we discuss how to more accurately quantify ET_(a)amount and explain its change on the TP.ET_(a)change on the TP can be quantified and explained based on an ensemble mean product from climate model simulations,reanalysis,as well as ground-based and satellite observations.ET_(a)on the TP experienced a significant increasing trend of around 8.4±2.2 mm(10 a)^(-1)(mean±one standard deviation)during 1982–2018,approximately twice the rate of the global land ET_(a)(4.3±2.1 mm(10 a)^(-1)).Numerical attribution analysis revealed that a 53.8%TP area with the increased ET_(a)was caused by increased temperature and 23.1%part was due to soil moisture rising,because of the warming,melting cryosphere,and increased precipitation.The projected future increase in ET_(a)is expected to cause a continued acceleration of the water cycle until 2100.

关 键 词：EVAPOTRANSPIRATION Global warming Water cycle Tibetan Plateau 

分 类 号：P426.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]