央行数字货币支付技术进步与应用场景扩大的宏观经济效应  

Macroeconomic Effects of Advancements in Payment Technology and Expansion of Application Scenarios of Central Bank Digital Currency

作　　者：刘震[1] 徐宝亮 朱衡 LIU Zhen;XU Bao-liang;ZHU Heng

机构地区：[1]西南民族大学经济学院 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院 [3]西南财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第8期26-43,共18页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金青年项目“新发展格局下江西省数字经济扩大居民消费需求的机制与路径研究”(项目编号:22JL10);西南民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“数字人民币助力四川扩大消费的影响机制与对策研究”(项目编号:2024SQN25)。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个包含央行数字货币和银行业具有垄断竞争特征的多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了央行数字货币支付技术进步和应用场景扩大对宏观经济的影响机制和作用强度。研究表明:第一,央行数字货币支付技术的进步会通过降低交易成本的方式,一方面提高公众持有央行数字货币的意愿,从而从需求侧发力推动数字货币化的转型进程;另一方面刺激消费需求和投资需求从而带动总需求的扩张。第二,在数字货币化推动下,垄断竞争的银行体系会创造流动性充裕的低利息信贷环境,宽松的信贷环境有利于推动总需求的扩张。第三,央行数字货币应用场景扩大会通过货币数量效应、技术扩散效应和资源再配置效应等传导渠道促进经济增长,并通过稳定宏观经济波动的方式增进社会福利。本文针对不计付利息的零售型央行数字货币的研究成果为稳妥推进我国数字人民币发展提供了重要的政策启示。In this paper,a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including CBDC and monopolistic competition in the banking industry is constructed.The mechanism and intensity of the payment technology progress and application scenario expansion of CBDC on the macro-economy and monetary and financial system are studied.We find there is a significant effect of the progress of CBDC payment technology in reducing transaction costs.This advancement not only heightens the willingness of the public to hold CBDC,fostering the demand-side transformation towards digitization,but also stimulates consumption and investment demand,ultimately driving the expansion of aggregate demand.Additionally,we also find that the monopolistic competition in the monetary and banking system,driven by digitization,creates a liquid and low-interest credit environment,which is favorable for promoting the expansion of aggregate demand.Furthermore,the expansion of CBDC s application scenarios is observed to promote economic growth,enhance social welfare,and stabilize macroeconomic fluctuations through various channels,including the monetary quantity effect,technology diffusion effect,and resource reallocation effect.The research results of this paper on interest-free retail CBDC provide important policy implications for the steady promotion of China s e-CNY development.

关 键 词：数字人民币 央行数字货币 支付手段 交易成本 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F820.3[经济管理—财政学] F822.2F832.1