延迟退休、生育率与内生增长  

Delayed Retirement,Fertility and Endogenous Growth

作　　者：万春林[1] 张卫 WAN Chun-lin;ZHANG Wei

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院 [2]西南民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第8期82-101,共20页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年项目“我国家庭养育成本的测度及其对生育率影响研究”(项目编号:22YJC910010);四川省自然科学基金青年项目“四川省劳动力年龄结构变动对产业高质量发展的影响及政策支持研究”(项目编号:2023NSFSC1064);全国统计科学研究项目“供需动态平衡下农村养老服务高质量发展的路径与政策研究”(项目编号:2023LY088)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化加剧使延迟退休呼声不断。本文将延迟退休纳入内生增长理论模型框架中,综合考虑延迟退休的资本积累效应、技术进步效应和生育效应,分析强制延迟退休和弹性退休两种退休模式对经济增长的影响。研究发现:预期寿命延长对生育率和经济增长具有抑制作用,但实施延迟退休政策能够抵消此负面作用,预期寿命延长会使老年人愿意提供更多工作时间;尽管延迟退休会使储蓄下降,但延迟退休对生育率和技术进步的正向作用超过了储蓄下降的负向作用,表明延迟退休有利于经济增长;弹性退休模式下的生育率和人均产出增长率均高于强制延迟退休对应数值,表明弹性退休模式更有利于促进生育率和经济增长。因此,建议中国应推行允许个人可以在一定年龄范围内自主选择退休年龄的弹性退休政策,这将有利于促进生育率回升和经济增长。本文在一定程度上丰富了延迟退休与经济增长的理论研究,并为实施弹性退休政策提供了理论借鉴。The aging population has led to calls for delayed retirement.Based on the unified growth theory,this paper puts retirement,fertility rate,human capital,pension,technological progress,and economic growth into the framework of endogenous growth model,to analyze the impact of exogenous and flexible retirement models on economic growth.The study found that the increase in life expectancy has a suppression effect on fertility and economic growth,but the implementation of delayed retirement policies can offset this negative effect,and the increase in life expectancy will make the elderly willing to provide more working hours.Although delayed retirement will reduce savings,but the positive effect of delayed retirement on fertility and technological progress exceeds the negative effect of declining savings,indicating that delayed retirement is beneficial to economic growth.The fertility rate and per capita output growth rate under the flexible retirement model are higher than the corresponding values of exogenous delayed retirement,indicating that the flexible retirement model is more conducive to promoting fertility and economic growth.Therefore,it is suggested that China should implement a flexible retirement policy that allows individuals to choose their own retirement age within a certain age range,which will help promote fertility recovery and economic growth.This paper enriches the theoretical research on retirement and economic growth to a certain extent,and provides a theoretical reference for implementing flexible retirement policies.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 弹性退休 生育率 内生增长 技术进步 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]