老年人罹患胆囊结石的危险因素分析及数学预测模型构建  

Analysis of Risk Factors and Construction of Mathematical Prediction Model for Elderly Patients with Gallstones

作　　者：胡红书 Hu Hongshu(Department of Surgery,Beijing Fengtai Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital,Beijing 100076)

机构地区：[1]北京市丰台区中医医院外科,北京100076

出　　处：《科技与健康》2024年第14期5-8,共4页Technology and Health

摘　　要：分析老年人罹患胆囊结石的独立危险因素,构建数学预测模型并进行验证。对2020年1月—2022年1月在北京市丰台区中医医院接受治疗的罹患胆囊结石的85例老年患者以及同时间段完成健康体检的85名老年人的数据实施回顾性分析。采取单因素、多因素分析各因素与老年人罹患胆囊结石的相关性,同时进行老年人罹患胆囊结石的预测模型构建和预测效能分析。Logistic多因素分析结果显示,体质量指数、罹患糖尿病情况、收缩压、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇是老年人罹患胆囊结石的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。研究发现,以体质量指数、罹患糖尿病情况、收缩压、总胆固醇、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇这6个独立危险因素建立患者的风险预测列线图模型具有良好的应用价值,可辅助对疾病进行有效的防治,从而减少老年胆囊结石的发生和对患者产生的危害。Analyze the independent risk factors for elderly people developing gallstones,construct a mathematical prediction model,and implement verification.A retrospective analysis was conducted on the data of 85 elderly patients with gallstones who received treatment at Beijing Fengtai Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital from January 2020 to January 2022,as well as 85 elderly individuals who completed health examinations during the same period.Adopting single factor and multi factor analysis to investigate the correlation between various factors and the incidence of gallstones in elderly people,while constructing a predictive model for the incidence of gallstones in elderly people and analyzing its predictive performance.Logistic multivariate analysis showed that body mass index,diabetes,systolic blood pressure,total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were independent risk factors for gallstone in the elderly(P<0.05).The study found that the establishment of risk prediction nomogram model for patients with six independent risk factors,body mass index,diabetes,systolic blood pressure,total cholesterol,and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,has good application value and can assist in effective prevention and treatment of diseases,thus reducing the occurrence of gallstones in the elderly and the harm to patients.

关 键 词：胆囊结石 体质量指数 糖尿病 收缩压 高密度胆固醇脂蛋白 

分 类 号：R657.42[医药卫生—外科学]