应对城市轨道交通突发公共卫生事件传播风险的研究  

Research on dealing with the risk of communication of public health emergencies in urban rail transit

作　　者：李玉华 丁小兵[1] 卢志文 史淦 洪晨 胡莹莹 赵崇博 LI Yuhua;DING Xiaobing;LU Zhiwen;SHI Gan;HONG Chen;HU Yingying;ZHAO Chongbo(School of Urban Rail Transit,Shanghai University of Engineering and Technology,Shanghai 201620,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院,上海201620 [2]云南省绿春县疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2024年第2期172-176,182,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2022BGL001)。

摘　　要：城市轨道交通在居民出行中发挥着重要作用。然而,在突发公共卫生事件发生时,城市轨道交通的运营出现了包括消毒、限流及出行独立等多重限制。控制列车满载率成为众多城市轨道交通运营过程中的必然选择。因此,如何在满足市民出行基本需求和维持轨道交通正常运营的同时,有效降低乘客感染风险,已经成为城市管理面临的新挑战。通过对上海市地铁运营现状以及上海市卫生健康委发布的信息可以发现,在突发公共卫生事件发生时,客流量与新增确诊病例有明显的关系;乘车时间与感染人数间存在显著关系,相关系数R^(2)为0.957;静安寺站和场中路站的列车满载率分别为0.5和0.9时,传播风险最大。因此,控制列车满载率能有效抑制传染病在城市轨道交通网络内的进一步蔓延,保障突发公共卫生事件下城市轨道交通的运营能力。Urban rail transit plays an important role in the travel of residents.However,during public health emergencies,the operation of urban rail transit has encountered multiple restrictions,including disinfection,flow restriction,and independent travel.Controlling train load factor has become an inevitable choice in the operation of many urban rail transit systems.Therefore,how to effectively reduce the risk of passenger infection while meeting the basic travel needs of citizens and maintaining normal operation of rail transit has become a new challenge faced by urban management.Through the analysis of the current situation of subway operation in Shanghai and the information released by the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission,it can be found that there is a significant relationship between passenger flow and newly confirmed cases during public health emergencies;there is a significant relationship between travel time and the number of infected individuals,with a correlation coefficient(R^(2))of 0.957;the maximum transmission risk occurs when the full load rates of trains at Jing’an Temple Station and Changzhong Road Station are 0.5 and 0.9,respectively.Therefore,controlling the full load rate of trains can effectively suppress the further spread of infectious diseases within the urban rail transit network,and ensure the operational capacity of urban rail transit in the event of public health emergencies.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传播机理 城市轨道交通 接触率 客流密度 上海 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]