Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains  

作　　者：Jian-Sheng HAO Yan WANG Lan-Hai LI 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),Beijing 100101,China [2]Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone,Urumqi 830011,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China [4]Tianshan Snowcover and Avalanche Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang,Xinyuan 835800,China [5]CAS Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia,Urumqi 830011,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2024年第3期442-451,共10页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expeditionand ResearchProgram(STEP)(2019QZKK0903);the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST(2022QNRC001);Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone(XJYS0907-2023-24);the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center(2021kf02);Xinjiang Transportation Investment Co.,Ltd.(ZKXFWCG2022060004).

摘　　要：Climate change alters snowpack evolution,which in turn influences the likelihood of snow avalanches and flood risks.The lack of systemic observational data on key snow characteristics in high mountains remains a scientific challenge in terms of systematically elucidating the dynamic chain of variations in climate-snowpack-snow disasters.This restricts our understanding and poses challenges in the prediction of snow-related disaster risks.As such,this study analysed the variations of temperature and snowfall and the physical characteristics of snowpacks based on ground-based observations from the Kunse River Valley situated in the Tianshan Mountains from 1967 to 2021.The results reveal that the temperature increased significantly by 0.32°C per decade(p<0.01)during the snow season,along with more extreme snowfall events.The snow-cover duration was observed to have been shortened by 4.77 d per decade(p<0.01)from 1967 to 2021,which is characterised by later snow-cover onset and earlier snowmelt.Concurrently,average and maximum snow depths increased along with an increase in peak snow water equivalent,thus indicating a higher frequency of extremely scarce or abundant snow years.The low snowpack temperature gradient and earlier snowmelt dates in spring lead to earlier occurrences of snowmelt floods and wet avalanches.As the risks of these events increase,they pose greater threats to farmlands,road transportation,water-electricity infrastructure and several other human activities.Therefore,these insights are critical for providing vital information that can deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on snowpack characteristics and improve management strategies for snow-related disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：Climate change Snowpack variations Snow-related disaster Tianshan Mountains 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]