Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters,eastern Tien Shan(1980s-2017)  

作　　者：Hui ZHANG Fei-Teng WANG Ping ZHOU Yi-Da XIE 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China [2]Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2024年第3期537-546,共10页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(2021xjkk0801);the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0201);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42301168)。

摘　　要：To address data scarcity on long-term glacial discharge and inadequacies in simulating and predicting hydrological processes in the Tien Shan,this study analysed the observed discharge at multiple timescales over 1980se2017 and projected changes within a representative glacierized high-mountain region:eastern Tien Shan,Central Asia.Hydrological processes were simulated to predict changes under four future scenarios(SSP1,SSP2,SSP3,and SSP5)using a classical hydrological model coupled with a glacier dynamics module.Discharge rates at annual,monthly(June,July,August)and daily timescales were obtained from two hydrological gauges:Urumqi Glacier No.1 hydrological station(UGH)and Zongkong station(ZK).Overall,annual and summer discharge increased significantly(p<0.05)at both stations over the study period.Their intra-annual variations mainly resulted from differences in their recharge mechanisms.The simulations show that a tipping point in annual discharge at UGH may occur between 2018 and 2024 under the four SSPs scenarios.Glacial discharge is predicted to cease earlier at ZK than at UGH.This relates to glacier type and size,suggesting basins with heavily developed small glaciers will reach peak discharge sooner,resulting in an earlier freshwater supply challenge.These findings serve as a reference for research into glacial runoff in Central Asia and provide a decision-making basis for planning local water-resource projects.

关 键 词：Observed glacial discharge Temporal variations Urumqi River Headwaters Eastern Tien Shan Simulation and projection 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]