基于马尔可夫链的草原沙漠化模拟模型  

Grassland Desertification Simulation Model Based on Markov Chain

作　　者：姜屿涵 JIANG Yuhan(State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying,Mapping and Remote Sensing,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《现代信息科技》2024年第14期125-129,135,共6页Modern Information Technology

摘　　要：文章对内蒙古鄂托克旗局部地区的草原沙漠化可能性进行了仿真分析。针对草原生态及环境,借助NetLogo仿真平台建立了四大模型以模拟草原沙漠化的进程,分别是基于马尔可夫链的天气预测模型、草的生长模型、羊和狼的生命模型和沙漠的扩张模型。结果表明该地区的生态承载力很脆弱,建议有关政府部门约束牧民,禁止在该区域放牧,及早治理,同时在已经沙漠化的区域植树造林以延缓区域沙漠化的进程。This paper simulates and analyzes the possibility of grassland desertification in local areas of Etuoke Banner,Inner Mongolia.Aiming at the grassland ecology and environment,four models are established by using the NetLogo simulation platform to simulate the progress of grassland desertification.These models include the weather prediction model based on Markov Chain,the grass growth model,the life model of sheep and wolves,and the model for desert expansion.The results indicate the region's ecological carrying capacity is extremely fragile.It is recommended that relevant government authorities restrict herding activities and implement grazing bans in the area.Early measures should be taken for restoration,while afforestation efforts should be carried out in areas that have already undergone desertification to mitigate the advancement of regional desertification.

关 键 词：草原沙漠化 气候 过度放牧 马尔可夫链 NETLOGO 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] X825[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]