土地出让金划转税务部门征收对城投债的影响效应分析  

Analysis on the Impact of Transferring the Collection of Land Transfer Fees to the Tax Authorities on Municipal Investment Bonds

作　　者：吴多文 张雪莹[2] 王倩[2] Wu Duowen;Zhang Xueying;Wang Qian

机构地区：[1]济南大学商学院,山东济南250022 [2]山东财经大学金融学院,山东济南250000

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2024年第8期58-68,共11页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：国家社会科学规划一般项目“我国财政风险和金融风险‘反馈循环’及其协同治理研究”(21BJY003);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“央行沟通、经济主体信心与货币政策效应研究”(22YJA790085);山东省社科规划一般项目(22CJJJ03);山东大学国家治理研究院2023年度研究课题(课题编号23B11)。

摘　　要：本文以土地出让金划转税务部门征收这一政策为切入点,考察其对城投债发行规模和信用风险的影响。实证结果显示,土地出让金划转税务部门征收政策实施后,城投债发行规模显著降低,但信用利差显著提升。在此基础上,本文探讨了土地出让金划转税务部门征收对城投债信用风险的异质性影响、经济机制和风险化解渠道,结果显示:与东部地区相比,中部地区和西部地区的城投债信用利差显著提升,与所属较高行政级别地区的城投债相比,所属较低行政级别地区的城投债的信用利差显著提升;较高的土地依赖度、地方债务压力和企业偿债压力会加剧政策实施后城投债的信用风险;发行“借新还旧”城投债有助于缓解政策实施对城投债信用利差的正向效应。本文的研究为全面认识土地出让金征收改革的政策作用提供了事实依据,对防范化解城投债务风险提供了分析路径和参考。This paper takes the policy of transferring the collection of land transfer fees to the tax authorities as a starting point to examine its impact on the issuance size and credit risk of municipal investment bonds.The empirical results show that after implementing the policy of transferring the collection of land transfer fees to the tax authorities,the issuance size of municipal investment bonds significantly decreases,but the credit spread significantly increases.On this basis,this paper explores the heterogeneous impact,economic mechanism,and risk mitigation channel of transferring the collection of land transfer fees to the tax authorities on the credit risk of municipal investment bonds.The results indicate that compared to the eastern regions,the credit spreads of municipal investment bonds in the central and western regions increase significantly;compared to bonds issued by regions with higher administrative levels,the credit spreads of bonds issued by regions with lower administrative levels increase significantly.Higher land dependence,local debt pressure,and corporate debt repayment pressure exacerbate the credit risk of municipal investment bonds after implementing the policy.Issuing“new debt to repay the old debt”municipal investment bonds helps mitigate the positive effect of policy implementation on the credit spreads of municipal investment bonds.This study provides a factual basis for the correct understanding of the policy effects of the land transfer fee collection reform and offers analytical paths and references for preventing and resolving municipal investment bond risks.This study provides factual evidence for the comprehensive understanding of the policy effects of the land transfer fee collection reform and offers analytical paths and references for preventing and mitigating municipal investment debt risks.

关 键 词：土地出让金 城投债 发行规模 信用利差 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]