中国金融系统性风险:规模测定与特征演变  

Systematic Risk in China's Financial System: Scale Measurement and Characteristic Evolution

作　　者：鲁艺 LU Yi(China Financial Research Institute,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2024年第7期119-127,共9页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：近年来,我国经济由高速增长模式逐步向高质量发展模式转变。在这一转型过程中,一些风险隐患逐渐显露,且由于金融化程度的不断加深,金融机构间关联日趋紧密,单个金融机构或金融市场的风险若不及时管控,则可能成为导火索引发系统性风险。为此,本文梳理了金融系统性风险测度方法,其中网络模型法基于对重要金融子市场构成的若干个网络模型的风险测度,进一步探析整体模型风险水平及网络模型间的风险联动和传导。结合指标变量法和网络模型法,本文对2007—2023年我国金融系统性风险进行测定并分析其特征演变,针对现阶段部分市场的新特征提出相应政策建议。In recent years, China's economy has gradually shifted from a high-speed growth mode to a high-quality development mode. In this transformation process, some hidden risks are gradually revealed, and due to the deepening of the degree of financialization, the connection between financial institutions is becoming increasingly close.The risk of individual financial institutions or financial markets, if not controlled in a timely manner, may become a fuse that triggers the systemic risk. This paper combines the indicator variable method and the network model method to measure and analyze the evolution of China's financial systemic risk from 2007 to 2023, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the new characteristics of some markets at this stage.

关 键 词：金融系统性风险 风险规模测度 网络模型法 特征分析 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]