国际能源市场与中国农产品市场的关联效应研究  

Study on the Correlation Eff ect between the International Energy Market and the Chinese Agricultural Product Market

作　　者：邬王一 魏积愚 魏江凡 陈晨 Wu Wangyi;Wei Jiyu;Wei Jiangfan;Chen Chen(College of Economics&Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830000,Xinjiang)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第15期164-168,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：自治区社科“新疆科技创新赋能农业绿色发展的机理、溢出效应与对策研究”(2023CYJ042);新疆农业大学校级教研教改项目“经济学专业整体推进混合式教学方案与实践”(2023HHSY18)。

摘　　要：为探讨国际能源市场与中国农产品市场之间的价格关联效应,本文密切关注石油价格变动对大豆、小麦、玉米和棉花等主要农产品价格的影响,基于时间序列数据和计量经济学模型,对石油价格与农产品价格的动态关系进行实证分析,并进行稳健性检验和敏感性分析。结果表明,石油价格与农产品价格之间存在显著的正相关关系,即石油价格的上涨会导致农产品价格上涨,这种价格关联效应在不同农产品中均有体现,但影响程度可能因产品而异。In order to explore the price correlation effect between the international energy market and China's agricultural product market,this paper closely examines the impact of oil price fluctuations on the prices of major agricultural products such as soybeans,wheat,corn,and cotton.Based on time series data and econometric models,it empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between oil prices and agricultural product prices,and conducts robustness test and sensitivity analysis.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between oil prices and agricultural product prices,meaning that increases in oil prices lead to increases in agricultural product prices.This price correlation effect is observed across different agricultural products,although the degree of impact may vary by product.

关 键 词：国际能源市场 中国农产品市场 价格关联 石油价格 农产品价格 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]