Analyses of Political Crisis Impact on Tourism:A Panel Counterfactual Approach with Internet Search Index  

作　　者：HUANG Bai SUN Yuying YANG Boyu 

机构地区：[1]School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance&Economics,Beijing 102206,China [2]Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [3]Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [4]School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China

出　　处：《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》2024年第4期1581-1603,共23页系统科学与复杂性学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.72203246(HUANG Bai's work);the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.72322016,72073126,71988101,71973116 and 72091212;Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST (SUN Yuying's work)。

摘　　要：Existing research has shown that political crisis events can directly impact the tourism industry.However,the current methods suffer from potential changes of unobserved variables,which poses challenges for a reliable evaluation of the political crisis impacts.This paper proposes a panel counterfactual approach with Internet search index,which can quantitatively capture the change of crisis impacts across time and disentangle the effect of the event of interest from the rest.It also provides a tool to examine potential channels through which the crisis may affect tourist outflows.This research empirically applies the framework to analyze the THAAD event on tourist flows from the Chinese Mainland to South Korea.Findings highlight the strong and negative short-term impact of the political crisis on the tourists' intentions to visit a place.This paper provides essential evidence to help decision-makers improve the management of the tourism crisis.

关 键 词：Composite search index counterfactual analysis political crisis search query data tourism demand 

分 类 号：D50[政治法律—政治学] F592[政治法律—国际政治] F125[经济管理—旅游管理] O212.1[经济管理—产业经济]