日本通胀形势与货币政策前景分析  

Japan Infl ation Situation and Monetary Policy Outlook Analysis

作　　者：王乾筝 曹莉 WANG Qianzheng;CAO Li

机构地区：[1]博鳌亚洲论坛研究院,北京市100004

出　　处：《吉林金融研究》2024年第6期1-5,共5页Journal of Jilin Financial Research

摘　　要：随着日本经济逐步复苏,物价增长时隔多年重回2%以上,日本央行于今年3月宣布终结负利率,并开始探讨缩减资产购买,为回归正常货币政策路径做准备。是否顺利实现这一目标,取决于日本的工资物价螺旋能否实现良性循环。日本央行需要重点观察外生价格冲击消退之后,国内物价能否基于工资上涨维持在2%以上。近期,日元过快贬值对货币政策操作可能构成干扰。日本长期陷入通货紧缩和政策响应的过程值得关注,从中应汲取经验教训。As Japan's economy gradually recovered and price growth returned to above 2% for the fi rst time in many years,the Bank of Japan announced the end of negative interest rates in March 2024 and began to discuss tapering asset purchases,preparing itself for a return to a normal monetary policy path.The success of this goal depends on whether Japan's wage-price spiral becomes a virtuous cycle.The Bank of Japan needs to monitor and judge whether Japan's domestic prices can remain above 2%based on wage growth even after the exogenous price shock fades.The rapid depreciation of the yen in 2024 may complicate the BOJ’s monetary policy operation.The prolonged defl ation in Japan and the corresponding policy responses warrant close attention and serve as valuable lessons for others.

关 键 词：通货紧缩 工资-物价螺旋 日元贬值 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]