基于未确知测度理论的管道内涂层失效风险评价研究  

Failure risk evaluation of coating in pipelines based on unascertained measure theory

作　　者：张宏 陈阳子 贾贞贞 朱碧云 孙春亮 梁昌晶 ZHANG Hong;CHEN Yangzi;JIA Zhenzhen;ZHU Biyun;SUN Chunliang;LIANG Changjing(No.1 Oil Production Plant of Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Renqiu 062552,China;Safety Supervision and Testing Center,Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Renqiu 062552,China;No.4 Oil Production Plant of Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Langfang 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油华北油田公司第一采油厂,河北任丘062552 [2]中国石油华北油田公司安全监督检测中心,河北任丘062552 [3]中国石油华北油田公司第四采油厂,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《石油工程建设》2024年第4期52-57,共6页Petroleum Engineering Construction

摘　　要：为提高管道内涂层质量的管控水平,从涂层性能、服役环境、涂层老化和施工缺陷等方面建立了三级指标、五级风险的评价指标体系,通过构造单指标测度、计算复合权重和构造多指标测度等步骤,实现了评价指标间差异性和不确定性的消除,并引入有效度对未确知测度理论的识别准则进行改进,实现了风险等级的评价,并进行了工程应用。结果表明,通过复合权重可降低改进层次分析法和变异系数法两类权重结果带来的弊端,一级指标中涂层性能的影响权重最大,二级指标中电化学阻抗值、清管频次、服役时间、施工水平的影响权重较大;评价结果与现场实际情况相符,证明了本文模型的科学性和有效性,为内涂层失效的风险性评价提供了一种新方法。In order to improve the management control level of coating quality in pipelines,an evaluation index system of three-level index and five-level risk was established by considering coating performance,service environment,coating aging,and construction defects.The differences and uncertainties among evaluation indexes were eliminated by constructing a single index measure,calculating composite weight,and setting a multi-index measure.The validity was introduced to improve the identification criteria of unascertained measure theory,and the risk grade was evaluated and applied in engineering.The results show that the composite weight can reduce the disadvantages brought by the weight results from improved interval analytic hierarchy process(IAHP)and coefficient of variation methods.In the primary index,the influence of coating performance has the largest weight.In the secondary index,the influence of electrochemical impedance value,pigging frequency,service time,and construction level has a larger weight.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which proves the scientificity and validity of the model proposed in this paper and provides a new method for the risk evaluation of inner coating failure.

关 键 词：未确知测度 管道 内涂层 复合权重 置信度 有效度 

分 类 号：TE988.2[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]