区县域土地利用碳排放模型在上海崇明区的应用  

Application of County Carbon Emission Model for Land Use in Chongming District,Shanghai

作　　者：周怿 韩震[1,2] 翁暄 杨瑞妮 ZHOU Yi;HAN Zhen;WENG Xuan;YANG Ruini(College of Oceanography and Ecological Science,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Estuarine and Oceanographic Mapping,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学海洋科学与生态环境学院,上海201306 [2]上海河口海洋测绘工程技术研究中心,上海201306

出　　处：《环境监测管理与技术》2024年第4期87-91,共5页The Administration and Technique of Environmental Monitoring

基　　金：上海市科委科研计划基金资助项目(18DZ2253900);教育部产学合作协同育人基金资助项目(202102245031)。

摘　　要：以上海崇明区为研究区域,在传统省域碳排放模型的基础上,提出一种区县域碳排放模型估算崇明区2015年、2017年、2019年和2021年碳排放,并利用LMDI模型分析了碳排放驱动因素。结果表明,崇明岛碳排放总体呈减少趋势,长兴岛和横沙岛碳排放呈增长趋势;经济效应对崇明区碳排放增加有正向驱动作用,结构效应和技术效应能够有效抑制碳排放,人口效应对崇明区碳排放影响较小;面向“碳中和岛”“低碳岛”和“零碳岛”目标,须因地制宜采取增汇和减排措施。Taking Chongming District,Shanghai as the research area,a county carbon emission model was established to estimate the carbon emissions in Chongming District in 2015,2017,2019 and 2021 based on tradi-tional provincial carbon emission model,and the driving factors of carbon emissions were analyzed by LMDI mo-del.Results indicated that carbon emissions showed a decreasing trend in Chongming Island,but an increasing trend in Changxing Island and Hengsha Island.The economic effect had a positive driving effect on the increase of carbon emissions in Chongming District.The structural and technical effects effectively suppress carbon emi-ssions.The population effect had little impact on carbon emissions in Chongming District.Toward the goals of“carbon neutral island”“low carbon island”and“zero carbon island”,it was necessary to adopt measures to in-crease carbon sink and reduce carbon emission according to local conditions.

关 键 词：碳排放模型 LMDI模型 土地利用 区县域 崇明区 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]