发展中国家新一轮债务问题的政治经济解释——“债务不耐”及其全球治理困境  

The Political Economy of the New Wave of Debt Problems in Developing Countries:Debt Intolerance and Global Governance Dilemma

作　　者：王钊 冯凯 WANG Zhao;FENG Kai

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际发展合作研究院/国际经贸研究所,上海200336 [2]南开大学跨国公司研究中心/经济学院国际经济研究所,天津300071

出　　处：《外交评论（外交学院学报）》2024年第4期115-154,I0005,共41页Foreign Affairs Review

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“中国发展融资创新与一带一路相关国家债务可持续性关系研究”(项目编号:19CGJ003)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：关于发展中国家为什么出现新一轮债务问题,西方部分舆论将中国贷款污名化,国内研究大多认为发展中国家过早进入国际资本市场发行主权债券,导致债务风险上升。本文尝试回应上述两种解释并提出综合性框架,以客观全面分析发展中国家债务问题的原因及中国在其中所扮演的角色,并使用147个发展中国家在1989—2019年间的面板数据进行实证检验。本文尝试以“债务不耐”概念化发展中国家在初步运用国际资本市场证券化融资渠道阶段债务问题高发的现象,并以国际资本市场涉入程度划分发展中国家为新兴市场国家、前沿市场国家和最不发达国家三类,为精准应对本轮债务问题提供国别类型学参考。本文重点阐述崛起国—守成国关系等国际政治环境对发展中国家“债务不耐”的调节效应,呈现债务议题领域相较整体权力的具象性与动态性。由此,可窥探大国权力转移中低政治议题的一般性知识,即事务本身规律与权力政治逻辑混杂,自由主义范式与现实主义范式交织。The recent upsurge in debt problems among the Global South has been attributed by some to China's overseas lending,whereas Chinese scholars argue that it stems from developing countries prematurely accessing the international capital market to issue sovereign bonds,thereby heightening debt risk.This paper responds to the aforementioned explanations,and proposes a comprehensive framework to analyze the causes of current debt problems and China's role,with empirical support of panel data from 147 developing countries between 1989 to 2019.The term“debt intolerance"”is utilized to conceptualize the phenomenon of escalating debt risk in developing countries during their initial securitization financing in international capital market.Based on such a concept,developing countries can be classified into emerging market countries,frontier market countries,and least developed countries,through which a typological framework is established for accurately addressing the new wave of debt problems.This paper primarily focuses on the moderating impact of the external political environment on debt intolerance,particularly the relationship between a rising power and a hegemon,highlighting the subtleness and dynamic within the issue area of debt in comparison with the overall power structure.The general characteristics of low political issues in the era of power transition can be discerned from this study,that is,the fusion of issue logic with power politics,and liberalism interwoven with realist paradigm.

关 键 词：发展中国家 债务不耐 全球债务治理 国际资本市场 主权债券 全球南方 

分 类 号：F811.5[经济管理—财政学]