基于随机森林算法的建筑物构件对地震损失的重要度分析  

Importance analysis of building components for earthquake losses based on the random forest algorithm

作　　者：刘良巧 王自法[1,2,3] 梁梓豪 刘渊 LIU Liangqiao;WANG Zifa;LIANG Zihao;LIU Yuan(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150080,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [3]不详

出　　处：《地震工程与工程振动》2024年第4期70-78,共9页Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics

基　　金：中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(2021B09);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51978634)。

摘　　要：建筑物地震损失是从构件破坏开始的,确定建筑物构件对地震损失的重要度有助于寻找结构的抗震薄弱构件。传统的抗震研究多数关注建筑物的结构构件破坏,对非结构构件的重要性研究不足,这也造成非结构构件的地震损失远超过结构构件的地震损失。基于新西兰地震保险数据集中大量详实的建筑物地震构件损失数据,采用随机森林的特征重要性(feature importance,FI)、排列重要性(permutation importance,PI)以及SHAP值(shap_values)这3种重要性分析方法对建筑物各损失构件在总体损失中的重要性大小进行排序,并采用赋值排序相加法和归一化相加的方法统筹表示重要性排序。归一化相加法不仅能判别构件的相对重要性,还可以定量地表达不同构件的重要性差异。结果表明,在所分析的12种构件类型中,非结构构件的重要度明显高于结构构件的重要度,其中墙面装修最重要,板式基础次之,屋顶框架的重要性最弱,未来需要更加注意墙面装修和建筑基础的抗震性能。Earthquake damage to buildings always starts from a damaged component,so the importance analysis of building components helps identify the weakest component in the structure.Traditional researches often focused on structural components,and the importance of non-structural components was not well studied,resulting in the loss of non-structural components being much larger than the loss by structural components.In this paper,based on a large amount of detailed component earthquake loss data from the New Zealand earthquake,three importance analysis methods from random forest,namely the feature importance(FI),the permutation importance(PI)and the SHAP value(shap_values),were used to rank the importance of each component for earthquake losses.Assignment sort summation and normalized summation were used to assemble the results from the three methods representing the combined importance of each component.The normalized summation method can not only identify the relative importance of the components,but also quantify the significance of the differences among different components.The results demonstrate that of the 12 types of components analyzed,non-structural components are more important than structural components in earthquake loss contribution,and wall ornaments are the most important component,followed by slab foundations,but roof framing is the least influential.The results indicate that future earthquake resistance efforts should put more focus on wall ornaments and slab foundations.

关 键 词：地震损失 结构构件损失 非结构构件损失 随机森林算法 重要性排序 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]