技术进步、结构调整对广东省工业减排的影响:基于LMDI的实证分析  

Impact of Technological Progress and Structural Adjustment on Industrial Emission Reduction in Guangdong Province:An Empirical Analysis Based on LMDI Model

作　　者：刘惠 赵卉卉 王明旭 范丹 LIU Hui;ZHAO Huihui;WANG Mingxu;FAN Dan(Guangdong Academy of Environmental Science,Guangzhou 510045,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省环境科学研究院,广东广州510045

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第8期1654-1665,共12页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：广东省环保专项资金项目(No.粤财预〔2024〕4号)。

摘　　要：为研究近年来广东省工业NO_(x)和SO_(2)排放的驱动因素,基于2010-2020年广东省工业企业大气污染排放数据,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)对广东省4个区域(珠三角地区、粤东地区、粤西地区和粤北地区)的工业大气污染排放变化量进行规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和治理效应的分解。结果表明:①研究期内,广东省工业企业SO_(2)和NO_(x)排放量分别下降了68.35×10^(4)和60.27×10^(4)t;经济增长是阻碍减排的主要因素,技术效应和治理效应均促进减排,结构效应抑制了SO_(2)排放但增加了NO_(x)排放。②区域对比结果显示,粤西和粤北地区承接了珠三角地区的产业升级压力,产业结构调整使得粤西和粤北地区SO_(2)排放量分别增加了0.11×10^(4)和2.91×10^(4)t,NO_(x)排放量分别增加了3.30×10^(4)和2.96×10^(4)t;粤东地区末端治理技术存在明显短板,研究期间治理效应带来0.51×10^(4)t的SO_(2)排放。③随着城市化进程的加快,广东省SO_(2)和NO_(x)排放量第一的行业由电力、热力生产和供应业变成非金属矿物制品业。研究显示,在经济增长回暖的背景下,广东省工业企业应注重清洁生产技术革新和加大末端污染治理力度,在短期内以新建和改造减排设施为主要手段,长期内则需进行政策引导,最终实现资源粗放型到资源节约型生产方式的转变。广东省4个区域的工业大气污染减排应因地制宜、因时制宜制定差异化的减排措施。In order to identify the driving factors of industrial nitrogen oxide(NO_(x))and sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))emissions in Guangdong Province in recent years,based on the air pollution emission data of industrial enterprises in Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2020,the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model was used to decompose the changes in industrial air pollution emission in four regions(the Pearl River Delta,the Eastern,the Western and Northern)in Guangdong Province into scale effects,structural effects,technological effects and governance effects.The results showed that:(1)During the study period,the emissions of SO_(2)and NO_(x)from industrial enterprises in Guangdong Province decreased by 683,500 t and 602,700 t,respectively.Economic growth is the main factor hindering emission reduction,with both technological and governance effects promoting emission reduction,while structural effects suppress SO_(2)emissions but increase NO_(x)emission.(2)The regional comparison results show that western and northern Guangdong are under the pressure of industrial upgrading in the Pearl River Delta.The adjustment of industrial structure has increased SO_(2)emissions by 1,100 t and 29,100 t respectively,and reduced NO_(x)emissions by 33,000 t and 29,600 t respectively.There are obvious weak link in the terminal treatment technology in the eastern Guangdong,and the treatment effect has increased by about 5,100 t of SO_(2)emissions.(3)With the acceleration of urbanization,the primary industry of SO_(2)and NO_(x)emissions in Guangdong Province has shifted from power and heat production and supply industries to non-metallic mineral products industries.The research has shown that in the context of economic growth recovery,industrial enterprises in Guangdong Province should pay attention to innovation in clean production technology and strengthen control over pipe-end treatment.In the short term,the construction and upgrading of emission reduction facilities should be the main means.In the long run,it is necessary to provide polic

关 键 词：广东省 对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI) SO_(2) NO_(x) 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]