基于日尺度旱涝急转指数的重庆市旱涝急转事件演变特征分析  

Evolution of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Chongqing based on the daily dry-wet abrupt alternation index

作　　者：刘玉冰 刘波[2] 王文鹏[2,3] 邱鹏 黎春蕾 仵新燕 刘缘晴 LIU Yubing;LIU Bo;WANG Wenpeng;QIU Peng;LI Chunlei;WU Xinyan;LIU Yuanqing(Fujian Provincial Investigation,Design and Research Institution of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350001,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 211100,China;Chongqing Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Chongqing 401120,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,福建福州350001 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]水利部水利大数据重点实验室,江苏南京211100 [4]重庆市水文监测总站,重庆401120

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第4期20-28,共9页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB3900601)。

摘　　要：为准确地反映旱涝急转事件的“突发性”与“交替性”特征,对重庆市34个气象站采用日尺度旱涝急转指数DWAAI提取1960—2018年旱涝急转事件,根据重庆市的实际情况划分不同强度旱涝急转事件对应的DWAAI数值范围,探究不同强度旱涝急转事件发生频次的时空演变特征。结果表明:重庆市旱涝急转事件以旱急转涝为主,旱急转涝事件占旱涝急转事件累计次数的85%,主要发生在4—9月,多年平均次数为22.64站次,其中,中度、重度事件占所有旱急转涝事件的11.7%、2.9%;旱急转涝事件频发于重庆市西部、中部及东北部区域,发生频次的变化趋势不显著;涝急转旱事件主要发生在7—9月,多年平均次数为5.60站次,轻度、中度事件占所有涝急转旱事件的92.9%、7.1%;涝急转旱事件在重庆市东南部、中部以及东北部区域的西部地区(如开县)频发,频发地区的发生频次总体呈增加的趋势。研究成果可为保障重庆市及相关地区水安全、加强防旱抗涝减灾工作提供理论基础。Drought-flood abrupt alternation events of 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing City were identified by the daily dry-wet abrupt alternation index(DWAAI),which can accurately reflects the suddenness and alternation of the events.Based on the actual situation of Chongqing City,the range of DWAAI values for drought-flood abrupt alternation events at different levels were determined and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the frequencies of these events were analyzed.The results showed that the drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Chongqing City were predominantly characterized by a transition from drought to flood,accounting for 85%of the total drought-flood abrupt alternation events.These drought-flood events mainly occurred during April-September,and the multi-year average cumulative frequency was 22.64 times,with moderate and severe events accounting for 11.7%and 2.9%,respectively.Spatially,drought to flood events occurred frequently in the western,central and northeastern regions,with no significant trend in frequency change.Whereas flood to drought events mainly happened from July to September,and the multi-year average cumulative frequency was 5.60 times,with mild and moderate events accounting for 92.9%and 7.1%,respectively.From spatial perspective,flood to drought events were frequent in the southeastern,central and the west part of northeastern regions(such as Kaixian),and the frequencies of the regions listed above generally showed an increasing trend.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for enhancing water security and strengthening drought prevention,flood resistance and disaster reduction in Chongqing and neighboring regions.

关 键 词：旱涝急转事件 日尺度旱涝急转指数 方差校正的Sen趋势检验 时空演变 重庆市 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]