人口老龄化对货币政策调控房地产价格效果的影响研究  

A Study of the Impact of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Regulating Real Estate Price

作　　者：叶学平[1] 赵博云 YE Xueping;ZHAO Boyun(Institute of Economics,Hubei Academy of Social Sciences,Wuhan 430077,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省社会科学院经济研究所,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第8期25-35,共11页Economic Forum

摘　　要：文章基于1999—2022年中国宏观经济数据,通过构建时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析货币政策对于房地产价格的调控效果。实证结果表明数量型货币政策与价格型货币政策在中长期对房地产价格调节均明显衰减,同时价格型货币政策的调节效果具有显著不确定性。利用2000—2021年中国省级面板数据构建系统广义矩估计模型(System-GMM)分析人口老龄化对货币政策调控房地产价格效果的影响。结果表明人口老龄化对于数量型货币政策调控房地产价格的效果产生负面影响,但对价格型货币政策在调控房地产价格方面的影响并不显著。在人口老龄化时代背景下,为中央银行改进货币政策,提高货币政策实施效果,以应对人口老龄化并促进房地产市场稳步发展提供参考,具有重要理论与现实意义。This study utilizes the Chinese macroeconomic data from 1999 to 2022,and employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model(TVP-VAR)to analyze the impact of monetary policy on real estate price reg⁃ulation.The empirical findings indicate that both quantitative and price-based monetary policies experience a no⁃ticeable decline in their effectiveness over the medium and long term in regulating real estate prices,while the regu⁃latory effect of price-based monetary policy is marked by significant uncertainty.In addition,this paper builds a Sys⁃tem-GMM model to analyze the influence of population aging on the efficacy of monetary policy in regulating real es⁃tate prices on the basis of the Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2021.The analysis reveals that population aging adversely affects the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy in real estate price regulation,while the im⁃pact on price-based monetary policy in regulating real estate prices is not significant.In the context of the ageing population,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to provide reference for the central bank improving monetary policy and enhance the effect of monetary policy implementation to cope with the ageing population and promote the steady development of the real estate market.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 货币政策 房地产价格 TVP-VAR模型 系统GMM模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]