环境规制与低碳经济发展——产业结构优化视角  

Environmental Regulation and Low-Carbon Economic Development:A Perspective of Industrial Structure Improvement

作　　者：欧阳勤[1] 王海娣 OUYANG Qin;WANG Haidi(School of Economics,Guangdong Baiyun University,Guangzhou 510450,China)

机构地区：[1]广东白云学院应用经济学院,广东广州510450

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第8期98-110,共13页Economic Forum

基　　金：广东白云学院2023年度校级科研项目“环境规制对低碳经济发展的反馈效应——基于产业结构优化视角的分析”(2023BYKY40)。

摘　　要：产业结构优化是我国实现降碳减排绿色发展的重要抓手,文章在构建环境规制-产业结构优化-低碳经济(LCE)转型的逻辑框架基础上,进一步结合中介效应模型与面板门槛模型考察产业结构优化过程中环境规制对LCE发展的传导机制与异质性。研究发现:(1)环境规制对产业结构优化起到进入壁垒机制与技术创新机制双重作用,且呈“U”型关系;(2)产业结构优化对LCE发展的影响取决于经济规模效应、技术效应及能源结构效应的叠加;(3)产业结构优化在环境规制影响LCE发展过程中存在“中介效应”与“调节效应”;(4)LCE转型时间路径模拟分析阐明,在实现环境污染区域协同规制的基础上,产业结构优化调整有助于减轻低碳转型代价,且严厉的碳减排约束效应可显著降低碳排放量。文章从产业结构优化视角拓展了LCE理论体系,为实现LCE转型提供良好策略。The improvement of industrial structure is a crucial means for China to achieve green development through carbon reduction and emission reduction.Based on the logical framework of environmental regulation-in⁃dustrial structure improvement-low-carbon economy(LCE)transformation,this paper further investigates the trans⁃mission mechanism and heterogeneity of environmental regulation on LCE development in industrial structure im⁃provement by incorporating the intermediary effect model and panel threshold model.This study reveals the follow⁃ing findings:(1)Environmental regulation plays the dual role of the entry barrier mechanism and technological inno⁃vation mechanism in the improvement of industrial structure,exhibiting a"U"-shaped relationship;(2)the impact of industrial structure improvement on LCE development depends on the combined effects of the economies of scale,technology,and energy structure;(3)in the process of environmental regulation influencing LCE development,there exist intermediary effects and regulatory effects of industrial structure improvement;and(4)Simulation analysis of the time path of LCE transformation demonstrates that,on the basis of achieving collaborative regulation of environ⁃mental pollution regions,industrial structure adjustment and improvement helps alleviate the cost of low-carbon transformation,and strict carbon emission constraint effect can significantly reduce carbon emissions.This paper ex⁃pands the theoretical framework of LCE from the perspective of industrial structure improvement,providing valuable strategies for achieving LCE transformation.

关 键 词：环境规制 低碳经济 产业结构优化 模拟分析 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F242