企业劳动力需求变化及其动力——针对五个行业招聘信息259周的跟踪观察  

Evolution of Labor Demand in Enterprises and the Driving Forces——A Track Survey of 259-Week Enterprise Recruitment Information of Five Industries

作　　者：张彬斌[1] ZHANG Binbin(National Academy of Economic Strategy,CASS,Beijing 100006,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100006

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第8期140-152,共13页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“区域税收收入与税源背离研究:基于企业注册地和经营地的视角”(72103199)。

摘　　要：就业形成于劳动力需求与供给的匹配。劳动力需求数据作为分析就业形势的先行指标,却一直比较缺乏。通过每周跟踪访问代表性网络招聘平台,观察五个行业企业在2017年5月至2023年3月初发布新岗位的特征,获得劳动力需求的“周频”数据。观察期内,企业劳动力需求整体呈现收缩趋势,同时具有明显的周期性、季节性调整特征。各行业的劳动力需求走势在2020年上半年普遍经历急剧下降并快速回弹的过程,形成“深V型”曲线,这主要得益于各类复工复产和援企稳岗等政策的有效实施。多个行业的企业岗位供应能力在2020年内稳步恢复至2019年年中水平,随后呈现差别化走势,到2023年初,各行业企业发布的新岗位数量相对于观察初期均收缩明显。民营企业是各行业最大的岗位供应主体,而大型城市劳动力需求则呈现不同程度下降,各行业对求职者的最低学历要求也呈现出提高趋势。宏观经济形势、企业面临的要素供应链和市场需求约束、劳动力需求主体的构成以及人力资本的重要性等因素,都是影响劳动力需求整体走势特征的深层理论机制。建议当前和未来一段时间内,促进各类政策举措协调配合,把有利于稳预期、稳增长和稳就业作为制定政策的优先考量,在供给端和需求端同时发力,畅通供应链,做强产业链,扩大有效需求,切实回应民营企业诉求,支持其稳定向优发展,促进企业的岗位创造潜力转变为现实的就业机会。Employment is formed by the matching of labor demand and supply.Labor demand data,as a lead⁃ing indicator for analyzing the employment situation,has always been scarce.This survey aims at collecting labordemand“weekly”data by industry through a weekly track visit to a representative online recruitment platform to observe features of new vacancies posted by enterprises in five industries,from the period of May 2017 to early March 2023.During the period,the overall labor demand of enterprises demonstrated shrinking trends,and has cy⁃clical and seasonal adjustment characteristics.The labor demand in every industry generally experienced a sharp de⁃cline and rapid rebound in the first half of 2020,forming a“deep V”curve,which is mainly thanks to the effec⁃tive implementation of various supportive policies for work resumption and production stabilization.Enterprises’capacity of providing jobs in several industries steadily recovered to the level of mid-2019 during 2020,and then showed differentiated trends in the following period.By early 2023,the number of new posts issued by enterprises in various industries contracted significantly compared with that of the early observation period.Private enterprises have been the biggest supplier of jobs in all the surveyed industries,and labor demand in large cities has declined in different degrees,and the minimum educational requirements for job seekers are increasing.The macro-econom⁃ic situations,the constraints of supply chains market demand for enterprises,the structure of labor demanders,the importance of human capital,and the like all are the deep-seated theoretical mechanism to affect the feature of the overall trend of labor demands.It is suggested that,at present and in the future,the coordination of various develop⁃ment policy measures be promoted;priorities be given to policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations,growth,and employment;efforts be made in both the supply side and the demand side so as to smooth supply chains,strengthen

关 键 词：企业劳动力需求 岗位发布特征 就业机会指数 跟踪观察 

分 类 号：F241.21[经济管理—劳动经济]