外交伙伴关系与中国FTA签订  

Diplomatic Partnership and the Signing of China’s FTA

作　　者：苗翠芬 冯祯祯 MIAO Cuifen;FENG Zhenzhen

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院、亚太经济合作组织与东亚合作中心 [2]山东财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第7期37-55,共19页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：中国社会科学院青年科研启动项目(2023YQNQD061)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出要推进高水平制度型开放,扩大面向全球的高标准自贸区建设。文章使用2000~2021年中国与196个伙伴国的面板数据,实证评估了外交伙伴关系对中国FTA签订、条款承诺异质性的影响,并以“是否缔结FTA”的样本均值作为“正确分类比率”的临界值,对中国FTA对象国的地理分布进行了预测。研究发现,外交伙伴关系层级越高,中国与伙伴国签订FTA的概率越高,条款承诺深度和覆盖度也越大。模型预测结果显示,中国FTA对象国涵盖了亚洲、大洋洲、北美、南美、欧洲以及非洲地区的诸多经济体或区域性组织。该研究为中国开展FTA谈判和可行性研究提供了参考依据。The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to enhance high-standard institutional opening up and expand the construction of high-standard free trade areas for the world. This paper uses the panel data of China and 196 partner countries from 2000 to 2021 to empirically evaluate the impact of diplomatic partnership on the signing of China's FTA and the heterogeneity of clause commitments. The sample mean of “whether to conclude an FTA” is adopted as the critical value for the “correct classification ratio” to predict the geographical distribution of China's FTA target countries. The research shows that the higher the level of diplomatic partnership, the higher the probability of China to sign FTA with partner countries and the greater the depth and coverage of clause commitments. The model prediction results reveal that China's FTA target countries include many economies or regional organizations in Asia, Oceania, North America, South America, Europe and Africa. This research provides a reference basis for China to carry out FTA negotiations and feasibility studies.

关 键 词：外交伙伴关系 自由贸易协定 二值选择Logit模型 FTA对象国 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]