欧盟碳边境调节机制与国际产业格局:基于全球可计算一般均衡模型的影响评估  

EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and international industrial landscape:Impact assessment based on a global computable general equilibrium model

作　　者：罗必雄 顾阿伦[2,3] 陈向东 左鹏 翁玉艳[2,3] 陈奕名 LUO Bixiong;GU Alun;CHEN Xiangdong;ZUO Peng;WENG Yuyan;CHEN Yiming(China Power Engineering Consulting Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100120,China;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;China Power Engineering Consulting Group International Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100013,China;China Forestry Group Corporation,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力工程顾问集团有限公司,北京100120 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [3]清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京100084 [4]中国电力工程顾问集团国际工程有限公司,北京100013 [5]中国林业集团有限公司,北京100036

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第8期1492-1501,共10页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目(72243003);中国能建重大科技专项“‘30·60’碳达峰碳中和系统解决方案研究”项目;清华大学中国林业集团有限公司“林业碳汇开发”产学研深度融合专项计划。

摘　　要：欧盟碳边境调节机制已成为欧盟的正式法律,开展其对全球经济、贸易和产业格局的深度影响评估确有必要。该文采用全球多区域递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,对欧盟碳边境调节机制进行了情景模拟和分析,评估了其对主要经济体国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)、出口和产业的影响,讨论了该机制下国际产业格局的发展趋势。结果表明:由于俄罗斯对欧盟出口钢铁等产品较多,因此其GDP将受到较大负面冲击,预计2025年和2030年俄罗斯GDP变化率分别达-0.12%和-0.32%,而欧盟通过本土替代生产将增加自身GDP;俄罗斯的出口总额下降最多,预计2025年和2030年出口总额变化率分别达-0.86%和-2.48%,而欧盟具体行业中,与碳边境调节机制相关行业的出口均会明显受益;俄罗斯、土耳其和中国等经济体的钢铁、非金属、有色金属和化工行业产出均将出现不同程度下降,中国有色金属行业的国际市场份额反而呈上升趋势,反映了竞争力优势。全球重点行业产出呈现从高碳产品出口依赖度高的发展中经济体向发达经济体或国际竞争力较强的发展中经济体转移的趋势。建议加强多边合作,优化产业与贸易结构,加快全国碳排放权交易市场建设,积极参与应对气候变化和贸易等领域国际标准和规则制定。[Objective]The legislative process for the European Union(EU)'s carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM)has been completed,and it officially became EU law in May 2023.The EU's CBAM imposes charges on imported products from selected industries based on their carbon emissions and the prevailing carbon prices in the EU emissions trading system through the issuance of“CBAM certificates.”Considering the intensified global competition in low-carbon development and the profound changes in the geopolitical energy landscape,the implementation of the EU's CBAM as a unilateral trade measure will have an impact on the global economy,trade,and industry,making it a focal point in the competition among major powers in the long run.Existing studies focus more on the impact of the EU's CBAM on exports and pay less attention to the changes in the international industrial landscape caused by the industrial output changes due to the implementation of the EU's CBAM.Furthermore,most existing studies primarily performed static analysis for the benchmark year and failed to capture the impact of cumulative changes over time and the evolution of CBAM rules on the future economy,trade,and industry.Limited analysis exists on the dynamic effects of the EU's CBAM.In addition,most studies exogenously assume carbon prices,unable to simulate the endogenous trends of carbon prices and their impacts within major economies under the latest low-carbon transition policies.[Methods]This research employs the China-in-global energy model(C-GEM)developed by Tsinghua University to simulate and analyze the impact of the EU's CBAM.C-GEM is a computable general equilibrium model that effectively represents the interlinkages and interactions between different sectors of the economy and the energy system,allowing the assessment of the economic impact of climate policies on major economies.C-GEM is a global multiregional model that can evaluate the effects of the EU's CBAM on the EU and other economies while analyzing the changes in the global industrial la

关 键 词：碳边境调节机制 国际产业格局 可计算一般均衡模型 碳减排 气候变化 

分 类 号：F745.0[经济管理—国际贸易]