中国饲料产业链高质量发展水平测度及其时空格局演进研究  

Research on the measurement of high-quality development level of China′s feed industry chain and its spatio-temporal pattern evolution

作　　者：周珊 杨香春[2,3] 叶永玲 ZHOU Shan;YANG Xiangchun;YE Yonging(Business School,Yulin Normal University,Yulin 537000,China;Intelligent Agriculture College,Yulin Normal University,Yulin 537000,China;Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences in Guangxi Universities,Research Center for Cultural Construction and Social Governance in Ethic Regions,Yulin 537000,China;Business School,Hechi University,Hechi 546300,China)

机构地区：[1]玉林师范学院商学院,广西玉林537000 [2]玉林师范学院智慧农业学院,广西玉林537000 [3]广西高校人文社科重点研究基地“民族地区文化建设与社会治理研究中心”,广西玉林537000 [4]河池学院商学院,广西河池546300

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2024年第8期1198-1210,共13页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目(编号:2020KY14021、2018KY0475);玉林师范学院校级科研项目(编号:2019YJKY01、2017YJKY27);玉林师范学院新农科研究与实践项目(编号:2020XNK04);广西哲学社会科学规划项目(编号:21FGL038);广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地“民族地区文化建设与社会治理研究中心”基金资助项目(编号:2023YJJD0027);玉林市科学研究与技术开发项目(编号:玉市科202324128)。

摘　　要：饲料产业链高质量发展对树立大食物观、实现农业强国战略和中国式现代化有重要作用。依据高质量发展内涵特征对中国饲料产业链2000—2021年发展水平进行测度,并借助莫兰指数、马尔科夫链等分析方法探究其时空特征与演变规律。结果表明:①中国饲料产业链经历了发展调整期、稳定发展期和快速发展期;②产业链发展空间关联性逐渐增强,并表现出“高—高”、“低—低”集聚和“高—低”分散类型;③产业链发展下行压力较大,“高质量极”和“中低质量陷阱”集聚效应明显;区域背景具有“等级锁定”效应和“空间溢出”效应;④产业链高质量发展的关键产业、关键发展内涵和关键发展指标分别是种植业、协调发展和饲料粮保障水平;⑤区分资源推动型、产品导向型和需求拉动型3种产业链类型,提出“宜种则种,宜产则产,宜牧则牧”的产业链空间布局优化。The high-quality development of the feed industry chain plays an important role in establishing the concept of big food,realizing the agricultural power strategy and Chinese modernization.This paper measured the development level of China′s feed industry chain from 2000 to 2021 according to the connotation characteristics of high-quality development,and explored its spatio-temporal characteristics and evolution rules with the help of analysis methods such as Moran index and Markov chain.The results showed that:①China′s feed industry chain had experienced periods of development adjustment,stable development and rapid development.②The spa-tial correlation of industrial chain development had gradually increased,and it showed the types of“high-high”,“low-low”agglom-eration and“high-low”dispersion.③The downward pressure on the industrial chain development was greater,and the agglomeration effects of“high quality pole”and“medium and low quality trap”was obvious.Regional background had the effects of“rank locking”and“space overflow”.④The key industries,key development connotation and key development indicators for the high-quality devel-opment of the industrial chain were respectively planting industry,coordinated development and feed grain security level.⑤Distinguish three industrial chain types:Resource-driven,product-oriented and demand-driven,and put forward the optimization of industrial chain spatial layout such as“planting what suitable plant,producing what suitable produce,grazing what suitable graze”.

关 键 词：饲料产业链 高质量发展 时空格局演变 空间自相关 MARKOV链 障碍度模型 

分 类 号：F324.6[经济管理—产业经济]