考虑多重不确定性的光伏支撑体系动力可靠性分析  

DYNAMIC RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SUPPORT SYSTEM CONSIDERING MULTIPLE UNCERTAINTIES

作　　者：钟伟 杨欢红 马向东 黄龙安 ZHONG Wei;YANG HuanHong;MA XiangDong;HUANG LongAn(State Gird Zhejiang Yiwu Power Supply Company,Yiwu 322000,China;Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江义乌市供电有限公司,义乌322000 [2]上海电力大学,上海200090

出　　处：《机械强度》2024年第4期898-904,共7页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51777119)资助。

摘　　要：提出了考虑多重不确定性的光伏支撑体系(Photovoltaic Support System,PSS)随机动力可靠性分析方法。首先,构建了基于概率密度演化理论(Probability Density Evolution Method,PDEM)的光伏支撑体系可靠性分析模型,包括概率守恒方程、基本控制方程和密度演化方程;然后,建立了光伏支撑体系的有限元分析模型,包括结构受力模型、荷载组合形式、网格划分算法等。仿真模型中考虑了结构所受荷载与结构本身的随机性,共计6个随机变量和44个代表点。为提升算法分析效率,提出了Abaqus⁃PDEM的联合仿真算法,仿真分析表明,光伏支撑体系的失效模式主要为应力控制和位移控制两种,后者影响更为明显,基本荷载组合工况下的可靠度为0.928。随着风力等级的提高,结构可靠性逐渐降低,在高风速区间(大于40 m/s),结构本身的不确定性会高估结构的可靠性水平,在设计中应予以关注。Dynamic reliability analysis method of photovoltaic support system(PSS)was proposed considering the multiple uncertainties.Firstly,the reliability analysis model of PSS was constructed based on the probability density evolution method(PDEM),including the probability conservation equation,basic governing equation and density evolution equation.Then,the finite element analysis model of PSS was built,including the structural stress model,load combination form,and mesh generation algorithm.In simulation,the randomness in load combination and structures were incorporated,in which consists of six basic random parameters and 44 representative systems.The solution efficiency was improved by the joint simulation of PDEM and Abaqus.Results show that stress and displacement are two failure modes of PSS,and the influence of the latter is more obvious.The reliability index under the basic load combination condition is 0.928.As wind speed increases,the structural reliability decreases.In the high⁃speed range larger than 40 m/s,the uncertainty in structure itself will overestimate the reliability level of PSS,which should be paid attention in design.

关 键 词：光伏支撑体系 荷载组合 概率密度演化理论 多重不确定性 有限元模型 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]