基于数据驱动的青藏铁路冻土区行车可靠性分析模型  

DATA⁃DRIVEN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS MODEL OF QINGHAI⁃TIBET RAILWAY IN PERMAFROST ZONE

作　　者：王劲博 唐家银[1,2] 刘新玲 吴怡 WANG JinBo;TANG JiaYin;LIU XinLing;WU Yi(School of Mathematics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学数学学院,成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都611756

出　　处：《机械强度》2024年第4期905-913,共9页Journal of Mechanical Strength

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20XJAZH009);四川省2021⁃2023年高等教育人才培养质量和教学改革项目(JG2021⁃394);西南交通大学教育教学研究与改革项目重点项目(20220320);中央高校基础研究培育专题2021年度项目(2682021ZTPY018)资助。

摘　　要：为保障青藏铁路二期工程格尔木至拉萨段高原冻土区的行车安全,基于冻土区铁路路基原始时序高程值数据,建立不同路基类型下的乘积季节模型拟合路基不均匀沉降退化轨迹,同时置信化有效预测路基高程沉降值。通过起始高程值差分运算,进行路基沉降值退化量统计分析,根据行车安全预设沉降阈值,借助失效时间外推方法完成可靠性评估。仿真模拟表明,模型能够有效地预测冻土区融沉退化情况且精度较高,同时研究成果可以为后勤保障部门的日常路基养护工作提供参考依据。To ensure the safety of train operation in the plateau permafrost region of the Golmud⁃Lhasa section of the Qinghai Tibet Railway Phase II project,based on the original time series elevation data of railway subgrade in permafrost region,the product season model under various subgrade types is established to fit the uneven settlement degradation trajectory of subgrade and effectively predicted elevation values with confidence intervals.The differential operation was used to analyze the subgrade settlement degradation values.The failure time extrapolation method was used to complete the reliability evaluation,and the settlement threshold was set based on driving safety.The simulation results show that it can accurately forecast permafrost thawing degradation,and the research findings can be used by the logistics support department to conduct daily subgrade maintenance.

关 键 词：冻土融沉 乘积季节模型 退化数据 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：U213.4[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]