考虑群体行为异质性的深港跨界口岸交通需求模型  

The Control Points-based Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cross-boundary Travel Demand Model Considering Behavioral Heterogeneity

作　　者：胡一冰 胡家琦 许项东 周军[3] 杨超 HU Yibing;HU Jiaqi;XU Xiangdong;ZHOU Jun;YANG Chao(The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Urban Mobility Institute,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Shenzhen Urban Planning and Land Resource Research Center,Shenzhen 518034,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]同济大学城市交通研究院,上海200092 [3]深圳市规划国土发展研究中心,深圳518034

出　　处：《交通与运输》2024年第4期8-13,共6页Traffic & Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72021002)。

摘　　要：口岸跨界交通是推动对外交流合作、经贸往来的重要支撑,精细化的跨界口岸交通需求分析和预测有助于提升口岸规划和治理水平、完善口岸基础设施服务质量。以深圳和香港地区之间的跨界客流为例,针对多元跨界群体在政策敏感性、目的地选择偏好、口岸选择偏好等方面的异质性,提出总量预测、客流分布、口岸选择“三阶段”跨界口岸交通需求模型框架。在方法上,以引力模型和离散选择模型为基础,充分考虑各类基础数据的现实局限性进行合理建模,使其兼具方法论行为基础和可用性。该模型框架从跨界群体出行行为异质性的角度为跨界口岸交通模型提供新视角,并为其他重大对外基础设施的交通需求建模提供参考。Cross-boundary transportation is an important support for promoting cultural exchanges and trade cooperation.Refined cross-boundary travel demand analysis and prediction are beneficial to improve control points'comprehensive governance and service quality.Taking the cross-boundary passenger flow between Shenzhen and Hong Kong as an example,a"three-stage"control points-based cross-boundary travel demand modeling framework is proposed for total demand forecasting,passenger flow distribution,and control points choice according to the travel behavior heterogeneity of multiple travel groups,in terms of sensitivity to policy,destination choice preference,and control points choice preference,etc.Based on gravitational model and discrete choice model,the"three-stage"control points-based cross-boundary travel demand model is developed by explicitly considering the existing data limitations,which guarantees both theoretical foundation and practical applicability.This study provides a new perspective for modeling cross-boundary travel demand with a classification of heterogeneous travel groups,and can also be further customized to other types of major infrastructures for external transportation.

关 键 词：城市交通 交通需求模型 LOGIT模型 跨界客流 深港口岸 行为异质性 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]