中国产业部门如何走出“气候赌场”——基于CGE模型的隐含碳定价机制探析  

How China’s industrial sectors can step out of the“climate casino”——Analysis of embodied carbon pricing mechanism based on CGE model

作　　者：胡剑波[1] 麦骏南 周宗康 HU Jian-bo;MAI Jun-nan;ZHOU Zong-kang(School of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025;School of Big Data Application and Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《价格月刊》2024年第8期32-40,共9页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国隐含碳全要素生产率动态演进与提升策略研究”(编号:23XJY022)。

摘　　要：基于CGE模型和SDA方法分析模拟了8种碳定价机制对宏观经济、减排目标和驱动因素的影响程度。结果表明:由于碳税和碳交易的价格形成过程不同,开征碳税对中国宏观经济的冲击更大,需要制定配套的税收返还措施,以有效弥补部分社会福利损失;价格-数量混合型碳定价机制对产业关联性较强部门如“交通运输设备制造业”“建筑业”和“化石能源”等部门的降碳效果更为显著;碳排放强度效应和中间投入结构效应是促进碳减排的主要驱动因素,且不同驱动因素对不同产业部门的作用程度存在显著差异。应坚持“政府+市场”双轮驱动,着力构建碳税与碳交易协同互补的碳定价机制,助力中国如期实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标。Based on CGE model and SDA method,this paper analyzes and simulates the impact of eight carbon pricing mechanisms on macro-economy,emission reduction targets and drivers.The results show that due to the different price formation processes of carbon tax and carbon trading,the impact of imposing carbon tax on China’s macro economy is greater.It is necessary to develop supporting tax refund measures to effectively compensate for some social welfare losses;The price-quantity mixed carbon pricing mechanism has a more significant carbon reduction effect on sectors with strong industrial correlation,such as“transportation equipment manufacturing”,“construction industry”,and“fossil energy”.Carbon emission intensity effect and intermediate input structure effect are the main driving factors for promoting carbon emission reduction,and the effects of different driving factors on different industrial sectors are significantly different.We should adhere to the dual drive of“government+market”,and strive to build a carbon pricing mechanism that coordinates and complements carbon tax and carbon trading,so as to help China achieve the carbon peak and neutrality targets on schedule.

关 键 词：碳定价机制 产业部门 CGE模型 SDA方法 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]