The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea  

作　　者：Hailong LIU Pingxiang CHU Yao MENG Mengrong DING Pengfei LIN Ruiqiang DING Pengfei WANG Weipeng ZHENG 

机构地区：[1]LASG,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]Laoshan Laboratory,Qingdao 266237,China [3]College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [4]Marine Science and Technology College,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China [5]State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100872,China [6]Center for Monsoon System Research(CMSR),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第9期1661-1679,共19页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program for Developing Basic Sciences(2022YFC3104802).

摘　　要：Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-10 days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.

关 键 词：PREDICTABILITY mesoscale eddy nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent South China Sea seasonal variability 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学]