我国制造业诱致性技术进步的就业效应分析  

Research on employment effect of induced technological progress in China's manufacturing industry

作　　者：吴迪 WU Di(Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部战略政策室,北京100038

出　　处：《科学学研究》2024年第8期1622-1633,共12页Studies in Science of Science

摘　　要：推动人工智能与制造业深度融合是加快推进新型工业化的重要路径。为探究制造业装备智能化对就业的影响,本文构建了诱致性技术进步影响就业总量和结构的理论模型,并基于我国A股制造业上市公司数据进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)要素价格变化会诱致企业提高资本投入来实现技术进步,且更倾向投入更加智能的设备,使技术进步更加智能。(2)技术进步智能化程度越高,对高技能劳动力的需求越强,对低技能劳动力的替代越弱,对就业更加友好。(3)稳定制造业就业的关键在于如何促进非技能劳动力就业,增加企业职工教育经费支出可有效缓解就业压力。基于此,应着重从强化技能培训、加大人工智能研发力度、加大劳动力保护力度等三方面着手,在推进人工智能与制造业深度融合中稳定制造业就业。Promoting the deep integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing is an important path to accelerate the new industrialization.In order to explore the impact of manufacturing equipment intelligence on employment,this paper constructs a theoretical model of induced technological progress affecting the total amount and structure of employment,and conducts empirical tests based on the data of China's A-share manufacturing listed companies.It is found that:(1)changes in factor prices induce enterprises to increase capital investment to realize technological progress,and they are more inclined to invest in smarter equipment to make technological progress smarter.(2)The smarter the technological progress,the stronger the demand for high-skilled labor,the weaker the substitution of low-skilled labor,and more friendly to employment.(3)The key to stabilizing employment in the manufacturing industry lies in how to promote the employment of unskilled labor,and increasing the expenditure on education of enterprise employees can effectively alleviate the employment pressure.Based on this,we should focus on three aspects:strengthening skills training,increasing AI research and development,and increasing labor force protection,so as to stabilize manufacturing employment in promoting the deep integration of AI and manufacturing.

关 键 词：诱致性技术进步 制造业就业 技能劳动力 技能培训 

分 类 号：F242[经济管理—劳动经济]