转型发展视角下长三角41市人口与建设用地时空关联格局及其启示  

Spatial and temporal correlation patterns of population and construction land in the 41 cities of the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of transformative development and their implications

作　　者：游猎 刘晓琴 王婧[2] YOU Lie;LIU Xiaoqin;WANG Jing(School of Design,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Institute of Management,Beijing Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学设计学院,上海200240 [2]北京市社会科学院管理研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第8期2158-2175,共18页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908350)。

摘　　要：从转型发展视角审视长三角过去30年人口与建设用地变化,为科学协调人地关系,编制实施国土空间规划提供参考。研究基于人居空间变迁模型,使用人口普查数据和土地利用/覆盖遥感数据,对1990—2020年间,长三角地级市人地变化进行面板分析。研究发现:①20世纪90年代以来,长三角41市人居空间变迁总体呈现“大蔓延、小稀释、高强度”的时空格局。人口、用地整体大幅扩张,且用地增速远大于人口增速。②分阶段看,变迁状态呈现“先同质化、后多样化”,变迁强度呈现“先扩大、后缩小”趋势,对应经济模式由计划经济向集体经济、民营经济、市场经济转型,发展条件由国内市场向国际市场转型,发展理念以及由高速发展向高质量发展转型。③人口与建设用地关联格局的空间分布以地理邻近特征为主,局部呈现空间分异。研究提出在当前经济增速放缓背景下,人居空间变迁状态应尽量稳定,并保持较弱的强度;面向未来发展,应通过协调人地关系推动土地资源集约节约利用,更好地适应转型发展要求。研究突破了对该地区人地关系演进单一指向的一般结论,有助于理解长三角转型发展和相关政策。Examining the changes in population and construction land in the Yangtze River Delta over the past 30 years from the perspective of transformative development provide reference for scientifically coordinating the relationship between people and land,and formulating and implementing national spatial planning.The research is based on the human settlements transition model,using census data and land use/land cover remote sensing data to conduct panel analysis of population and land use changes in the prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2020.The study found that:(1)Since the 1990s,the overall spatial and temporal pattern of human settlement space transformation in the 41 cities of the Yangtze River Delta has been characterized by“large sprawl,slight dilution,and high intensity”.The overall population and land use have significantly expanded,and the growth rate of land use is far greater than the population growth rate.(2)From a phased perspective,the state of change shows a trend of“homogenization first,diversification later”,and the intensity of change shows a trend of“expansion first,contraction later”.Correspondingly,the economic model is transitioning from planned economy to collective economy,private economy,and market economy,the development conditions are transitioning from domestic market to international market,and the development concept is transitioning from high-speed development to high-quality development.(3)The spatial distribution of the relationship between population and construction land is mainly characterized by geographical proximity,with local spatial differentiation.The study suggests that in the context of the current slowdown in economic growth,the state of changes in human settlements should be as stable as possible and maintain a relatively weak intensity;In the face of future development,we should promote the intensive and economical use of land resources by coordinating the relationship between humans and the environment,and better adapt to the req

关 键 词：转型发展 人居空间变迁模型 人口-建设用地变化率模型 空间惯性 长三角地区 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F299.23