Projected impacts of climate change and anthropogenic effects on habitat distribution of endangered Javan Hawk-Eagle in Indonesia  

作　　者：Syartinilia Aryo Adhi Condro Satoshi Tsuyuki 

机构地区：[1]Department of Landscape Architecture,Faculty of Agriculture,IPB University(Bogor Agricultural University),Bogor 16680,Indonesia [2]International Research Institute for Environment and Climate Change-IPB University,Collaborative Research Centre,Bogor 16128,Indonesia [3]Rainforest Alliance,Denpasar,Bali 80227,Indonesia [4]Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences,The University of Tokyo,Tokyo 113-8657,Japan

出　　处：《Geography and Sustainability》2024年第2期241-250,共10页地理学与可持续性（英文）

摘　　要：Changing climate will jeopardize biodiversity,particularly the geographic distribution of endemic species.One such species is the Javan Hawk-Eagle(JHE,Nisaetus bartelsi),a charismatic raptor found only on Java Island,Indonesia.Thus,it is crucial to develop an appropriate conservation strategy to preserve the species.Ecological niche modeling is considered a valuable tool for designing conservation plans for the JHE.We provide an ecological niche modeling approach and transfer its model to future climate scenarios for the JHE.We utilize various machine learning algorithms under sustainability and business-as-usual(BAU)scenarios for 2050.Additionally,we investigate the conservation vulnerability of the JHE,capturing multifaceted pressures on the species from climate dissimilarities and human disturbance variables.Our study reveals that the ensemble model performs exceptionally well,with temperature emerging as the most critical factor affecting the JHE distribution.This finding indicates that climate change will have a significant impact on the JHE species.Our results suggest that the JHE distribution will likely decrease by 28.41%and 40.16%from the current JHE distribution under sustainability and BAU scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,our study reveals high-potential refugia for future JHE,covering 7,596 km^(2)(61%)under the sustainability scenario and only 4,403 km^(2)(35%)under the BAU scenario.Therefore,effective management and planning,including habitat restoration,refugia preservation,habitat connectivity,and local community inclusivity,should be well-managed to achieve JHE conservation targets.

关 键 词：Climate change Ecological niche Ensemble model REFUGIA Javan Hawk-Eagle 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]