树轮记录的阿尔泰山南坡过去304年夏季温度变化及水热配置模式  

Tree-ring records of summer temperature variation and hydrothermal configuration mode on the southern slope of Altai Mountains in the past 304 years

作　　者：李强[1,2] 刘禹[2] Olga Solomina[3] 王嘉川 Vladimir Matskovsky 宋慧明 孙长峰 庞文轩[1] 闫亚兰 蔡秋芳 任萌 程海[1,2] LI Qiang;LIU Yu;Olga SOLOMINA;WANG Jiachuan;Vladimir MATSKOVSKY;SONG Huiming;SUN Changfeng;PANG Wenxuan;YAN Yalan;CAI Qiufang;REN Meng;CHENG Hai(Institute of Global Environmental Change,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,Shaanxi;State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi'an 710061,Shaanxi;Institute of Geography,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow 119017,Russia;Xi'an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research,Xi'an 710061,Shaanxi)

机构地区：[1]全球环境变化研究院,西安交通大学,陕西西安710049 [2]黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,中国科学院地球环境研究所,陕西西安710061 [3]Institute of Geography,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow 119017,Russia [4]西安地球环境创新研究院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2024年第4期859-868,共10页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:42173080和41991251);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(批准号:42488201);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(批准号:32061123008)共同资助。

摘　　要：阿尔泰山南坡受到西风急流、北冰洋冷湿气流、蒙古-西伯利亚高压和亚洲低压共同影响,形成了当地特有的气候模式;同时,阿尔泰山地区是欧亚沟通的枢纽地带,气候变化对周边人类生产生活以及生态系统影响显著。因此有必要了解阿尔泰山周边气候变化长期历史,识别气候变化特征,总结规律以应对未来气候变化带来的灾害。本研究利用相关分析发现阿尔泰山南坡西伯利亚落叶松树轮宽度年表与夏季(6~7月)温度呈显著关系(r=0.626,n=58,p<0.001),进而建立一阶线性回归模型方程定量重建了阿尔泰山南坡过去304年(1715~2018年)夏季温度变化。统计结果显示重建序列稳定可靠,并有能力代表大范围的温度变化特征。重建存在5个暖期(1740~1767年、1775~1793年、1837~1847年、1898~1909年、1990~2018年)和5个冷期(1715~1727年、1807~1828年、1848~1858年、1876~1897年、1927~1940年)。虽然自1990年来温度持续上升(1990~2018年温度距平0.33℃),但并未超过1740~1767年的温度(温度距平0.49℃)。结合周边降水重建序列,发现研究区域在过去3个多世纪表现出夏季水热同步的配置模式,即暖湿/冷干模态占主导地位。The climate on south slope of the Altay Mountains(China Altay)is affected by the westerlies,the airflow from the Arctic Ocean,the Mongolia-Siberia High and the Asian Low,resulting in unique climate pattern in this region.China Altay is also located in an important place along"the Silk Road Economic Belt"and the Eurasian communication hub,climate change has a significant impact on the surrounding human production,life,and nature ecosystem.Therefore,it is necessary to understand the long-term history of climate change around the China Altay,identifying the characteristics and rules to cope with the possible climate disasters in the future.In this study,using Pearson correlation analysis based on a significant relationship between the tree-ring width chronology from 60 Siberian larch tree-ring cores(latitude:48.5°N,longitude:87.18°N,elevation:2037 m)and the summer temperature(June-July)(r=0.626,n=58,p<0.001),we established the first order linear regression model equation to reconstruct summer temperature variations of the China Altay during the past 304 years(1715~2018 A.D.).The statistical results showed that the reconstruction was stable and reliable.The spatial correlation with gridded temperature dataset indicates that the reconstruction could represent temperature variations within a wide area.The five warm periods(1740~1767,1775~1793,1837~1847,1898~1909,and 1990~2018)and five cold periods(1715~1727,1807~1828,1848~1858,1876~1897,and 1927~1940)were detected from our reconstruction.Although rapid warming occurs since 1990(1990~2018,0.33℃than normal),it has not exceeded the temperature range of 1740~1767(0.49℃than normal).Combined with the surrounding precipitation reconstruction,we found that the study area showed a synchronized configuration pattern of summer precipitation and temperature during the past three centuries,that is,the warm wet/cold dry mode dominated.

关 键 词：温度重建 树轮宽度 阿尔泰山 西伯利亚落叶松 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]