树轮记录的乌兹别克斯坦东南部1780年以来的干湿变化  

Tree-ring records of drought and wetness variations in Southeastern Uzbekistan since 1780

作　　者：张合理 赵晓恩 陈峰 胡茂 王世杰 陈友平 Bakhtiyorov Zulfiyor 岳伟鹏 尚华明[1] 范煜婷[1] ZHANG Heli;ZHAO Xiaoen;CHEN Feng;HU Mao;WANG Shijie;CHEN Youping;ZULFIYOR Bakhtiyorov;YUE Weipeng;SHANG Huaming;FAN Yuting(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology/Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration,Ürümqi 830002,Xinjiang;Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan;Khujand Science Center Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan,Khujand,Tajikistan)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆树木年轮生态实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院云南省国际河流与跨境生态安全重点实验室,云南昆明650500 [3]塔吉克斯坦共和国科学院胡占德科学中心,塔吉克斯坦胡占德747802

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2024年第4期920-927,共8页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(批准号:2021D01B118);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(批准号:32061123008);新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室开放课题(批准号:2021D04004和2022D04005)共同资助。

摘　　要：确定干湿条件变化的控制机制,将增进对近百年气候变化的认识,对乌兹别克斯坦干旱地区气候环境变化的研究具有重要意义。本研究基于乌兹别克斯坦东南部采集的25棵树的38个树芯样本,以土耳其斯坦圆柏(Juniperus turkestanica)为研究对象,建立了1780~2014年的可靠年表,分析了研究区树轮宽度年表与月标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,简称SPEI)之间的相关性,结果表明:在生长季,降水和气温是树木径向生长的主要限制因子,其中降水促进树木生长,气温则相反。标准年表(STD)与多月份组合气象因子相关分析,上年6月至当年5月平均SPEI与STD呈极显著正相关,相关性最大(R=0.643,P<0.01)。基于以上分析,建立了树轮宽度与SPEI_(6-5)线性回归方程,方差解释量41.3%,P<0.01。采用逐一剔除法检验发现,误差缩减(RE)值大于0,乘积平均数(PMT)为7.63,验证了重建的方程的可靠性和稳定性。重建了1780~2014年SPEI_(6-5)序列,在过去的235 a中,研究区经历了8年极干旱年份,4年极湿润年份。研究区干湿变化主要受大气环流因子:太平洋多年代际震荡和北大西洋涛动等影响,本研究可为气候变化背景下乌兹别克斯坦东南部水资源的管理和科学合理的利用等提供数据参考。Determining the controlling mechanisms of drought and wet conditions will enhance our understanding of climate change over the past century and is of great significance for studying climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Uzbekistan.This study is based on 38 tree core samples collected from 25 Juniperus turkestanica trees in southeastern Uzbekistan,establishing a reliable chronology from 1780 to 2014.It analyzes the correlation between the tree-ring width index of Juniperus turkestanica and the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)in the study area.The results indicate that during the growing season,precipitation and temperature are the main limiting factors for radial tree growth,with precipitation promoting growth and temperature inhibiting it.Correlation analysis between the standard chronology(STD)and combined meteorological factors of multiple months showed a highly significant correlation between the average SPEI from June of the previous year to May of the current year and the STD(R=0.643,P<0.01).Based on this analysis,a linear regression model was established,explaining 41.3%of the variance.The reliability and stability of the reconstructed equation were validated using the leave-one-out method,with a reduction of error(RE)value greater than 0 and a product mean test(PMT)value of 7.63.The reconstructed SPEI6-5 sequence for 1780~2014 shows that the study area experienced 8 extremely dry years and 4 extremely wet years over the past 235 years.The drought and wet conditions in the study area may be influenced by atmospheric circulation factors,including the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillationt and the North Atlantic Oscillation,which regulate climate and hydrological changes through water vapor flux.This study provides data references for the management and scientific utilization of water resources in southeastern Uzbekistan in the context of climate change.

关 键 词：树轮 乌兹别克斯坦东南部 SPEI重建 NAO和IPO 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]