从准结盟到务实合作:印俄关系调整的原因及走向  

From Quasi-Alliance to Pragmatic Cooperation:The Causes and Direction of India-Russia Relations'Adjustment

作　　者：王世达[1] Wang Shida

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院南亚研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第4期57-73,162,163,共19页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“中华民族伟大复兴战略全局与世界百年大变局的关联性和统筹性研究”(22JJD710015)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在冷战期间,印度与苏联建立了准同盟级别的特殊伙伴关系,保持了较为密切的战略合作。冷战后,印度与俄罗斯建立了“特殊和特权战略伙伴关系”。俄乌冲突爆发之后,印度拒绝追随西方对俄罗斯进行孤立和制裁,并强化与俄罗斯在能源领域的合作。但必须指出,印俄关系也出现了不和谐不稳定因素,从准结盟降格为基于共同利益的大国务实合作。例如,两国就“印太战略”分歧严重,印度采取了支持和推进“印太战略”的政策,俄罗斯则坚决反对“印太战略”。此外,印度在印俄关系中的主动性也有所增强。此番印俄关系调整是诸多因素综合作用的结果。从根本上看,共同利益和合作基础遭削弱是印俄关系调整的核心原因。在经济上,俄罗斯对于印度的重要性呈现断崖式下滑;在安全上,俄制武器在印度仍有市场,但面临美欧武器的激烈竞争;在地缘政治上,地缘结构剧变对印俄合作构成严重冲击。此外,俄乌冲突本身也是印俄关系调整的重要诱因。印俄关系调整产生系列地缘政治和安全影响,加剧了大国权力博弈复杂性和不平衡性,以及南亚地区安全的脆弱性。前瞻性预判印俄关系调整动向需要考虑诸多因素,尤其是印度“多面结盟”外交政策向何处演变,印度大规模以折扣价购买俄罗斯石油能持续多久等等。During the Cold War,India maintained a relatively close strategic cooperation with the Soviet Union in a special partnership at the quasi-alliance level.After the Cold War,India established a"special and privileged strategic partnership"with Russia.After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,India refused to follow the West in isolating and sanctioning Russia and intensified cooperation with Russia in the energy sector.It must be noted,however,that discord and instability have also emerged in India-Russia relations,which have been downgraded from a quasi-alliance to a pragmatic cooperation of great powers based on common interests.For example,the two countries have serious differences over the Indo-Pacific Strategy,with India adopting a policy of supporting and promoting the Strategy and Russia firmly opposing it.In addition,India's initiative in India-Russia relations has also increased.This realignment of India-Russia relations is the result of a combination of factors.Fundamentally,the erosion of common interests and the basis for cooperation is at the core of the changes in their relations.Economically,Russia's importance to India has shown a precipitous decline;in terms of security,Russian-made weapons still have a market in India but face fierce competition from U.S.and European weapons;and geopolitically,the drastic change in the geostructure has posed a serious impact on India-Russia cooperation.In addition,the Russia-Ukraine conflict is an important trigger for the realignment of India-Russia relations.The geopolitical and security implications of the realignment of India-Russia relations have exacerbated the complexity and imbalance of the power game between major countries and the fragility of regional security in South Asia.A prospective forecast of the dynamics of the realignment of India-Russia relations requires to take into account various factors,in particular,the evolution of India's foreign policy of"multi-alignment",the duration of India's large-scale purchases of Russian oil at a discou

关 键 词：印俄关系 俄乌冲突 “印太战略” 准结盟 

分 类 号：D851.2[政治法律—政治学] D835.1[政治法律—外交学]