从对冲到选边:乌克兰的战略取向与俄乌冲突的困局  

From Hedging to Taking Sides:Ukraine's Strategic Direction and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Dilemma

作　　者：张弘[1] Zhang Hong

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2024年第4期98-116,164,165,共21页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“乌克兰近代史研究”(19VJX060)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：泽连斯基政府执政以来,延续了波罗申科时期“一边倒”的亲西方外交战略,持续推动与欧盟的政治经济一体化,强化与北约的安全合作,继续与俄罗斯进行对抗。为此泽连斯基政府综合运用多种外交方法和策略密切与西方关系,十分注重公共外交,主动与西方社会加强互动与沟通,在国际组织、传统媒体和互联网社交媒体平台上频繁发声,争取西方社会对乌克兰的支持。泽连斯基亲西方外交为乌克兰争取到大量援助,同时也给乌克兰带来一系列负面后果。首先,泽连斯基寻求与西方结盟的外交打破了俄罗斯与西方在乌克兰的均势,导致地缘政治竞争升级为严重的地缘政治危机。泽连斯基加速推动加入北约和欧盟进程,增加了俄罗斯的不安全感,促使普京与西方提前摊牌,进而采取预防性行动。其次,亲西方外交的作用具有一定的局限性。西方与乌克兰不是正式的联盟关系,为了避免引火烧身,西方选择不直接介入危机,仅提供有限援助,无法满足乌克兰打赢战争的需要,导致冲突变为持久战和消耗战,乌克兰的人员和财产损失持续扩大。同时,“一边倒”的亲西方外交削弱了乌克兰外交的自主性,增加了外交和谈的难度。俄乌和谈受西方的牵制而陷入僵局,导致乌克兰深陷地缘政治危机而无法自拔。Since coming to power,the Zelensky government has continued the"one-sided"pro-Western diplomatic strategy of the Poroshenko era,continued to promote political and economic integration with the European Union,strengthened security cooperation with NATO led by the United States,and continued to engage in confrontation with Russia.To this end,Zelensky used a combination of diplomatic methods and tactics to strengthen relations with the West,paying great attention to public diplomacy,taking the initiative to enhance interaction and communication with the Western community,and frequently speaking out in international organizations,traditional media and social media plaforms on the Internet to win the support of the Western community for Ukraine.While Zelensky's pro-Western diplomacy has secured a great deal of aid for Ukraine,it has also brought about a series of negative outcomes for the country.First,Zelensky's diplomacy in seeking an alliance with the West broke the geopolitical parity between Russia and the West in Ukraine,leading to an escalation of geopolitical rivalry into a serious geopolitical crisis.Zelensky's accelerated push for Ukraine's accession to NATO and the European Union increased Russia's insecurity and prompted Putin's early showdown with the West,which in turn led to preventive action.Second,the impact of pro-Western diplomacy has certain limitations:the West is not in a formal alliance with Ukraine,and to avoid drawing fire,it has chosen not to intervene directly in the crisis and has provided only limited assistance.The limited support of the West could not meet Ukraine's needs to win the war,resulting in the conflict turning into a protracted and atritional war,and Ukraine's losses in terms of people and property continued to expand.In the meantime,the"one-sided"pro-Western diplomacy has weakened the autonomy of Ukrainian diplomacy and made the diplomatic negotiations more challenging.The peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse due to U.S.-Western constraints,resulting

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 乌克兰外交 对冲战略 选边战略 泽连斯基 “一边倒”外交 

分 类 号：D851.2[政治法律—政治学] D851.13[政治法律—外交学]