国土空间规划体系下区域间土地资源配置:现实挑战及解决方法  

Inter-regional Land Resource Allocation Under China’s Territorial Spatial Planning System:Realistic Challenges and Solutions

作　　者：温璐歌 沈体雁[1] WEN Luge;SHEN Tiyan

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2024年第8期87-100,共14页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国产业集群地图系统(CCM)建设与应用研究”(17zDA055),项目负责人:沈体雁。

摘　　要：提高资源配置效率是实现中国经济高质量发展的重要突破口,然而当前我国存在土地要素配置不当的问题,导致土地利用效率低下。探索如何优化土地资源配置,协助地方政府实现预期规划目标,是现阶段的重要任务之一。基于此,本文梳理了中国土地利用规划的发展脉络,并阐述了土地资源配置制度模式的独特性。进一步地,本文整理了目前在土地资源配置研究中使用的理论及模型,并构建了具有经济学机理的中国国土空间规划模拟模型(CTSPM),从供需平衡的视角提出区域间土地资源配置方案。研究发现:当前以土地指标体系为核心的中国土地资源分配模式存在无法准确衡量用地需求的问题;通过应用CTSPM模型并进行情景模拟,能够实现对各地的用地需求合理预测;在自然发展情境下,至2035年,中国整体耕地面积将下降2.8%,绿色生态用地面积将下降7.6%,城乡建设用地面积将上涨14.5%;快速发展将会降低发展落后地区耕地需求量并扩大城乡用地的需求量,而对于发展水平较高的地区的影响较小。Improving the efficiency of resource allocation is an important breakthrough for achieving high-quality economic development in China.However,there is currently a problem of misallocation of land resources in China,leading to inefficient land use.Therefore,it is important to study how to opti⁃mize the allocation of land resources and help local governments achieve the expected planning goals.Against this background,this paper firstly systematically examines the development of land use planning currently used in China,and elaborates on the uniqueness and practical limitations of the land resource al⁃location system model centered on the allocation of land targets.On this basis,this paper collates and summarizes the theories and models currently used in land resource allocation research in China,and final⁃ly constructs a CTSPM model with an economic mechanism,proposing an inter-regional land resource al⁃location scheme from the perspective of supply and demand balance.The study finds that the current land resource allocation model in China,which centers on the land indicator system,has a problem accurately measuring land demand.Through the construction of the CTSPM model based on the general equilibrium theory and scenario simulation,it is possible to achieve a reasonable prediction of land demand for each re⁃gion.By 2035,under the natural development scenario,China’s overall arable land area will decrease by 2.8%,green ecological land area will decrease by 7.6%,and urban and rural construction land area will increase by 14.5%.The rapid development will significantly reduce the demand for arable land in under⁃developed areas and increase the demand for urban and rural land,while the impact on the areas with a higher level of development will be less significant.

关 键 词：国土空间规划 土地资源配置 可计算一般均衡模型 CTSPM模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]